I WAS CALM ON ELECTION NIGHT
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Somewhere in the middle, tons of people apoplectic that is was possible that we could lose the Presidency… which was a reasonable belief at certain points… like I remember when the betting markets got to -800 Trump in the middle of the night I thought that is way off but more like a slight edge for Biden which is still horrifying.
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I was in thread panic, but not really that panic. If I was actually as panic as I was posting in thread I would have sold my predictit shares. But that being said, I also didn’t buy more shares, so guess I was in the middle.
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I WAS CALM ON ELECTION WEEK
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I liked when Christie said early on that if Biden could keep Ohio within 1-2 points then the Biden camp would be happy. And I said no shit Porkstradamus, but the range could be anywhere from 2 to 6. Oh sweet summer child, the final result was Biden lost by 8.
Ok that last one was calm and rational, I’ll give you that.
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I never had us worse than 65/35 which was for about an hour, which made me nervous, but Fox and AP called AZ shortly thereafter and I was on cruise control from there.
Once AZ was called, I felt like we were at or above the pre-results odds (88/12 or whatever).
Arizona was a bad call though… play bad, get there…
I was anything but calm on election night. I had to take a 2.5 hour break to work out. I buried my phone under my covers so I couldn’t see it light up. When I came back online I had no idea if it was going to be 2016 and all but over, or something better.
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You were definitely one of the calmer ones on Election Night, like top 25%. IIRC you waited til it was obviously in the bag for Joe to really let that panic creep in.
Most likely, but it’s possible they were right and they ran like 2.9 standard deviations out. Impossible to know without knowing what they knew in the room.
My favorites were the regs who panicked and didn’t take a break. It was quite fun to go back and read their work on election night after the fact.
Like we’re collectively really good at panicking in entertaining ways. We crush it at gallows humor.
If Trump wants to become a Dem (because the cuckservative GOP abandoned him and thus abandoned America) and primary Biden in 2024 can the DNC tell him to fuck off and keep him off the ballot?
Weird post. It’s 0% to happen, but if somehow it does, why try to stop him? Most states make the rules so that registered Republicans can’t vote in Democratic primaries. So Trump would lose by humiliating margins. It would be hilarious.
Trump could definitely run 3rd party and destroy Republicans’ world. Which he will certainly threaten to do if he doesn’t win the 2024 R primary and expect like a $billion not to run.
Include me on that list, too. I was never worried.
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Upon review, @LikeClockwork was definitely in the top 3-5% in calmness. Also one of the better quips of the night, when asked what we expect of Iowa:
Some confidence and good betting advice. Next election I’ll have some money on Bovada in advance, so I can wait a month to get paid.
I went with a “Chill, we got this,” vibe but you were going more with the antagonistic swagger. That works, too.
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Maybe start another thread for the self-congratulatory stuff? I know some people like clip-shows, so it will be good to keep it all in one place.
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He didn’t want to win in 2016, no way he wants to win in 2024. If he runs it will be for the attention/grift.
He’s Donald Trump. Greatest man in history. Why waste your time against a bunch of losers who aren’t president when you can go directly against the president himself and also hurt the party that refused to start a civil war on behalf of your ego?
I’m mostly kidding but if I could put money down somewhere at long odds that Trump runs as a Dem in 2024 I absolutely would put money down on it.