Who will run in 2020?

Was those monsters on land of the lost.

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Sestak is a former congressman and military guy. I don’t think we have enough of those.

He ran for senator of Pennsylvania in 2010, defeating incumbent Arlen Specter (who had recently switched parties) in the primary. He then narrowly lost to Pat Toomey in the general.

He ran again in 2016, but lost the primary.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1155157119278157825

Sounds like a plan! Repeat his own words back to him, maybe throw in a free appetizer, and he’ll pass whatever we want!

Damn, why didn’t Obama think of that?

I’m wondering whether Hickenlooper, Klobuchar or Biden would be the worst nominee.

Did you see Kamala’s terrible student debt forgiveness plan?

It’s for Pell Grant recipients who start a business that operates for three years in disadvantaged communities.

She’s the worst.

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As crazy as it is to have 20+ candidates, looking back it’s even crazier that there were only 3 candidates for 2016.

went to a debate watch party on the first night. It felt like someone said “why are they giving Delaney so much time” on every single question.

Wake me up when this is down to Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, and Biden. Then it’ll be worth it. Until then, I’ll continue my grassroots campaigning.

This may be premature, but does either Bernie or Warren have a path to win with the other still in the race? Maybe if Biden crashes but that’s looking increasingly unlikely.

Hopefully one of them beats the other solidly in the first few primaries and the other drops out and endorses, but I wouldn’t count on either of them dropping out unless they do really poorly. Maybe Harris and Biden split their votes just as badly.

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Yeah, still, Biden+Harris is starting with around a ~10% lead over Bernie+Liz. Bernie+Liz can still grow ofc, but Biden alone is going to suck up 3-8% from the Delaney/Ryan/Bennet/Hickenlooper/Bullock/Klobuchar crowd.

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I think it’s a pretty big mistake to assume
Biden voters would go to Harris if he dropped out or vice versa.

eh, kinda? But 2016 no one wanted to go up against Clinton because she had such an insane advantage out the gate. In 2020, no one fears Biden, and Trump seems beatable for ~everyone.

Imagine if Elizabeth Holmes had run for President instead of grifting venture capitalists.

I think we’re going to have a lot more of these 4chan cult candidates in our elections from here on out. Ron Paul really was the trailblazer, but now his style of grift has expanded in the age of social media.

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Here is how the candidates stand the day after the Detroit debates in PredictIt’s [2020 Democratic nomination market]

  • Joe Biden at 27 percent (+3¢)
  • Elizabeth Warren at 22 percent (-1¢)
  • Kamala Harris at 17 percent (-7¢)
  • Bernie Sanders at 13 percent (-1¢)
  • Pete Buttigieg at 10 percent (-2¢)
  • Andrew Yang at 9 percent (+1¢)

I think it’s interesting to look at predictit prices not just to see the Democratic candidates’ changes of getting the nomination, but also their perceived likelihood of winning. If you compare each candidate’s price for winning the Presidential Election to the same candidate’s price for winning the Democratic nomination, you get the expected probability of that candidate winning the election if they were the nominee.

There are 8 candidates priced at 0.05 or higher for the primary:

image

Each of those candidates also has presidential prices, and the ratio of the presidential price to the nomination price is the conditional probability:

A couple of things stand out:

  1. Biden is viewed as having a pretty strong conditional chance, consistent with Democrats feeling “I’m not in love with Biden’s policies, but he’s the most likely to beat Trump.”

  2. Same with Bernie, consistent with the “Bernie would have won” crowd.

  3. I’m kind of surprised at how low Harris’s conditional number is - I think she’d be a strong candidate in the general. If I were betting on Harris, I’d buy the presidential odds rather than the primary odds. On the other hand, predictit’s price for a Democratic presidential winner is 0.54, so you could say that Harris is exactly at generic Dem levels and everyone else in the top 6 is better.

  4. Just LOL at Yang’s number implying that, ACTUALLY, he’s the candidate most able to beat Trump. For those of you looking to short Yang’s .08 as the nominee, you should be focusing on shorting his general election odds.

Anyway, fun stuff to think about. General caveat about illiquid markets, variance, yadda yadda yadda.

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Disrespect for Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb itt.

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Hillary is bearing Beto and like a dozen other candidates on Predictit.