Sorry for the length of this, but you know me. I put dividers between your questions, so you can skip to whatever you want to read.
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Rounding up it was 3 percent. In the final votes released prior to certifying the election, I received 3.1% of that vote drop. That was likely the in-person voting tally.
As for doing it again, I canāt commit either way. Iām working on the biggest thing of my caeer thatās likely going to be a 2+ year project once the pandemic becomes more mild (already 2 years in on the development). Thereās no way Iād be able to do a āseriousā run while working on that. If I were ever to run again, I would take it a lot more seriously but the only way Iād probably even consider it is if 2022 looks like it would bring big systemic change potential. A big portion of what I ran on was trying to make sure nothing like Donald Trump could ever happen again and trying to legislate a lot of the abuses of power this administration has done out of being able to happen again. I think voters have the appetite for that but Congress likely doesnāt.
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For things I would do differently? My intended campaign goal pretty much fell apart when the pandemic happened. I was basically in the ācrankā tier with my original intent, but wasnāt exactly a crank candidate. I wanted to see what would happen if I eschewed all of the traditional avenues people are forced to rely on to be competitive. That alone put me in the crank candidate tier. Iām capable of holding a conversation, am presentable, and have a decent voice so itās not like I was worried about any of that. I just didnāt want to do it. I specifically avoided putting my picture on my website because I didnāt want there to be any preconceived notions about who I was. If it was missed above, i wasnāt running for me, I was running to be an avatar of what I felt was a lost, missing, or oppressed voice. With the numerous positions I laid out, if those things were important to the particular voter, they would know I was an avatar for their views. I could easily have picked 5-7 core issues and ran on them with probably significantly more success, but it wouldnāt have been an accurate overall picture of what was important to me.
Iām not sure (50/50) whether I would have been better off returning interview requests. I ignored requests from 4 places (3 campaign related, 1 for comment about a development). One newspaper that didnāt ask for an interview printed small profiles of every candidate in the race, and I guffawed at mine. It missed the core of what I was running on and picked out a few somewhat ridiculous things related to how I would run a non-traditional campaign but it was still a āgoodā profile (they subtly slammed nearly every candidate Dem/GOP in the race, some less subtly than others). The main writing hit a very core point and it appeared to drive a decent amount of traffic to my website.
As I said in a previous post, my original goal was to create the equivalent of brand awareness. People running in elections need to have their names remembered to even be selected on the ballot. The question was how to do that with no money and no campaigning. I was originally going to do road signs placed strategically throughout the district. Based on permitting, this might have been very expensive and not necessarily worth the cost. It was $200 to get a permit to put signs on a roadway, and even doing 25 signs probably would have cost over $400 for the signage. The other thing was I was going to just randomly place business cards at various places. Both of those ideas were blown out of the water by the pandemic.
The main thing I wanted to do was craft a mailer that would potentially get the voterās attention. I felt I came up with a solid idea but knew it would be difficult and time-consuming to carry out. It was a 500 piece mailer and my goal was to try to find out how to get postage done cheaper than face value. I had a consultation call with the U.S. Postal Service Political Mail division in the area, and was basically told Iād backed myself into a corner that meant I was likely going to have to pay full postage rate. She was kind of surprised I only wanted to create this one mailer and gave me a list of printers to contact if I wanted to do a second mailer and to see if anything could be done with my original idea.
After talking with the printer, it became clear that I was on my own for the main mailer because it would have been just as difficult for the printing company to do what I was trying to do but with more expected ābreakageā than I would probably face. In other words, it would be more expensive than how I would do it at full postage rates and I would need to buy more material to protect against bad printing. On a positive note, he really liked the layout of the mailer I designed and what it was trying to accomplish (could have been sales, but might not have been because he knew he couldnāt sell me anything). Theyāre a printing house that does a ton of political printing and he told me if he received the mailer heād open it based on how it looked. That was at least encouraging that I was on a good track. When describing what he would do in a postcard version of the printing, I realized Iād made an error with the paper stock. That was largely because the idea didnāt come to me until a few days after Iād finished the logo design. I had it printed on a glossy postcard, but it definitely would have looked better with a matte finish.
Within a week or so, Iād made the determination I was likely going to do either a 500 or 1000 piece additional mailer going through the postage saving way. I gave about 8 days lead time from when I wanted to have the mailers sent out when I asked for a quote, but he wasnāt properly responsive related to cost so I could determine whether I wanted to do 500 or 1000. He then disappeared for nearly a week and by the time he got back to me (without the information I wanted) I felt it would be too late for the mailer to have proper effectiveness so I decided against it. I also hadnāt seen anything that looked like a surge in website traffic related to the original mailers, which also pushed me away from wanting to do the second set. The mailers ultimately appeared to be surprisingly effective based on county level analysis but I didnāt know that at the time.
Iām rambling on a bit here, but thinking more clearly about how I wanted to do the mailer might have had more effect. The biggest issue I faced was the ballots were supposed to start going out on a particular date. I received my ballot 10 days before that date and saw an immediate upsurge in website traffic that night. At that point, Iād only sent out 50 of the 500 mailers and knew I was in deep crap. It took me about 5 days to get all the mailers out and by the time they were all out (not received) the state had probably received back nearly 60k ballots (probably about 15k in the district).
I didnāt want to get my name out too early to the point where it could have been forgotten, but it turned out the bad outcome had happened with a lot of ballots being returned before I had gotten my name out really at all (this was also significantly before any press came knocking). The other issue was that I needed to create a way to get more reach in the weeks leading up to the election. This basically left facebook, and predictably I had issues just getting set up.
It took several hours to correctly size the ad images to where they would both display properly and not have a loss of reach due to too much text (nonsensical trial and error trying to get around a stupid algorithm), but I was still set up in time to start my campaign on the day I planned the following morning. I left my computer for about a half hour and when I returned my account had been disabled and I was given the message that I may never hear anything back to any appeal (lol). After waiting 2 days, I received a message giving a list of reasons why I might have had my account disabled (even after having been ID verified to run political ads). My best guess was that it was due to having two accounts (wanted a separate account for the campaign, but thatās apparently a no-no). That meant I had to go through the whole ID verification again on my regular account, which is about a week-long process. It meant I had barely two weeks to create any kind of reach and would probably mean Iād miss out on a lot of potential voters.
The idea was to get as many impressions as possible with the same message as my mailer and also a more generic version that just led to the website. What I found was that facebook was consistently suppressing the āmessageā ad despite it having more engagement than the generic one. Over the weekend of the first week, I did an A/B test campaign where the āmessageā ad was again clearly winning on engagement. When they sent me the results, it said the other ad had won despite the interface telling me the āmessageā ad won. I basically determined before the test was over that I was going to kill the generic ad and just run the āmessageā ad. Iād hoped to get around 500k impressions with my budget, but unique impressions ended up being about 130k (zip code targeted, though I never saw the ad). Of that, probably a little under half were to non-voters. And then based on Dem/GOP registered voter split, it probably hit maybe 30k to 40k Dem registered and/or likely voters. My original goal was to get about 3 link clicks per 1,000 impressions. I ended up with about 400 clicks overall, and based on the 30k to 40k Dem voter reach, that probably exceeded my expectations significantly. The day before the election, I received a message that my latest charge by facebook had been denied by AMEX (they thought it was fraud, good job AMEX). I solved the issue on AMEXās end, but I continued to have an account error in the facebook ad manager. I just let the campaign lapse at that point.
The only positive out of the facebook ad campaign was that it showed me who was engaging with the ads on a demographic basis. I was surprised to find out the number one group was women 18-34, followed by women 35-44, followed by men 18-34, and men 35-44. What that likely told me was that I was on the wrong delivery platform for ads. The facebook campaign cost $310, so Iām not sure how effective it was. Based on things like Cost per Click, I had numbers a lot of places would drool over but I didnāt get the reach I hoped for and it was obviously later than I wanted (many ballots would have been returned by the time I started the campaign).
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For advice to anyone who might do this? Itās the same advice Iād give to any potential filmmaker, just do it. Figure out what policy ideas mean the most to you, then figure out where those policy ideas get implemented. If thatās at the local level, run at the local level (itās much easier to win in local elections depending on the locality). If thatās at the state level, run at the state level. If thatās at the federal level, run at the federal level. I knew the things that mattered to me all happen at the federal level, which is why I ran there.
By running in a federal campaign thatās not statewide, youāll get attention whether you like it or not. How you use that attention is probably what determines how you do at a base level. Itās very important to understand that I never intended or expected to be competitive in this race. When I was thinking about ways to not sit on the couch, I felt I could get my message out about the importance of this particular election to the highest amount of people by running for the House.
Itās not hard to get on the ballot in most places especially for a āpeopleās seatā, but the most important thing to realize is that even if your goal is to spend practically no money, thatās just not realistic. My original goal was to spend about $800 all in (including $300 ballot access) and that was impossible if I wanted to reach more than 300 people. Itās possible the āfreeā publicity had the most impact, but I can never know for sure. If you feel strongly about running for something understand youāre going to lose a lot of privacy. The run will be attached to your name on the internet forever. I hope the run wonāt harm my career, but it was something I felt compelled to do so itās not something Iāll spend much time worrying about even if it does end up being detrimental. All my clients who knew about it were very supportive and I had to continually lower their expectations of how I would do.