Do you think he will ever spend time in jail?
You are such a weird person lol I have so many questions. What is the Cactus backstory? How did you get to this state? Are you secretly that doubleJwhatever fake cop dude from the former place?! Thats like my best guess.
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Now THAT I really donāt have a strong sense about one way or the other. I mean, heās for sure supposed to. But I wouldnāt want to bet on it. At least not right now
If you think itās 50/50 you need to seriously reevaluate your epistemology.
I donāt mind being weird, but prefer eccentric lol. But where do you think Iām being weird?
I think many of yāall are weird or at least stunningly unreasonable. Thereās a huge difference between saying, āI donāt think heāll ever be chargedā andā¦
"LMAO OMG NO WAY IS HE EVER GETTING CHARGED WITH ANYTHING EVER OMG ARE YOU KIDDING ME NOTHING IS EVER GOING TO HAPPEN!!! MUAHAHAHAHAā¦
oh you want to bet? er, okay but he has to be found guiltyā¦ by a juryā¦ in x amount of timeā¦ canāt make a plea deal. andā¦"
Not you, because you at least immediately backed up your rhetoric with a no nonsense bet. But can these other people even hear themselves? Itās fucking laughable
I probably think thereās a higher chance than you do, but donāt think itās anywhere 50/50
But I find your choice of words funny. I assume you know what epistemology means
The logistics of putting a former POTUS in jail could be mind numbing. Although, if heās convicted of espionage, maybe he loses his presidential bennies including secret service. The point is that I donāt know and neither do you. All we can do is assign probabilities to outcomes. Only a math illiterate would assign a probability of 0 or 1, yet thatās what many here have done with respect to him being charged and are now at it again with a guilty verdict (of course they donāt really believe that or theyād be offering me a much better price to make a wager. In other words, they are knowingly full of shit when they post)
So some really should reevaluate their epistemology, but that someone is not me
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Cactus, donāt hurt 'em
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LOL. You realize you are now proposing a bet that I literally canāt win.
If you want to know why people make fun of you, shit like this is why. You propose a bet that is literally unwinnable for me and then you berate me for not accepting this absurd offer.
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So itās a good lower bound?
I guess I didnāt think that through 
Seriously, thatās embarrassing lmao! I got so flustered I just mashed that last part out. Of course there needs to be some sort of time limit and Iām absolutely fine with 3 years. But everything else I said stands. Weāre talking about a guy who stared directly into a solar eclipse. Do you really think itās fair that I lose $1000 because he goes on a big mac binge and has a heart attack, then canāt stand trial? Why canāt that be a push? Or we choose some arbitrators who can decide whatās fair?
Do you not think itās above him to fake a health problem if he thought it would get him out of a trial? We already know heās got a crack team of doctors who will attest that he is the paragon of health. Iām sure if he directs them otherwise, they can conclude the exact opposite of that.
Very true about him having access to a quack doctor. I donāt know how else to get around this tho. I guess we wait and see if/when thereās a deliberation and then bet on the outcome
Itās possible Iām being too nitty about illness or other events. If you would agree to adding time if the trial is suspended or he falls ill, we could do that
The problem is distinguishing between falling ill and āfalling illā. That would be hard even for our crack team of 3 arbiters to adjudicate. And if he fakes it and it works, then his lawyers will just claim that he just doesnāt seem to be recovering until he actually does die.
My solution is to give you a bit of an overlay to compensate for these other possibilities. His actuarial risk of death in 3 years is actually pretty low. Serious illness or another pandemic are also not that likely, but Iād agree there is not insignificant risk. Just figure out what you think the chance of those things is and a fair price for that. Maybe add a bit extra on top of that and we can come up with a price you find favorable enough to compensate your risk for those other (presumably) unlikely events.
Fwiw, as someone who hasnāt always been nice to Cactus in the past, and also as someone who was mostly waaf and didnāt expect anything to ever happen, I think itās fair to say that the NY indictment is at least something, and I would not want to take a bet against him getting federally indicted atm, time being the important variable (if they think they have a case by fall, I think there is a decent chance he gets federally indicted, but deeper into the campaignā¦ meh).
I think Cactus is being fair in looking for terms that capture the spirit of the conventional wisdom here, again myself included, that stable genius will face more legal āconsequencesā than most of us are on record as expecting. Maybe itās hard to come to terms for a bet, but if the vibrant young man gets federally indicted, I think Cactus is largely vindicated. I donāt think a conviction is even necessary for me personally to think that.
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Thatās a fine position for you to have, but remember that itās just you. One of the problems that I think Cactus is having is that everyone has a slightly different position when it comes to what consequences people think Trump will face. So when he is discussing it, he is really having multiple conversations with people who have slightly different views. But for some reason he interprets the differences as āgoal post shiftingā when the truth is that he is just having 10 different conversations with 10 different people and they are saying similar, but not identical things. Just because everyone disagrees with him doesnāt mean that they all precisely agree with each other.
My personal goalposts have been posted in this thread and remain unchanged. I think federal indictment is very unlikely (I declined to bet any indictment in any jurisdiction when it was offered). Conviction and jail time are zero chance. Thatās my story and Iām sticking to it.
Even if we donāt make a bet, if Orange Man gets convicted by a jury or spends a night in jail, Cactus is free to laugh at me as much as he is able.
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Cactus faders sound like Adanthar on Election Night 2016 claiming to be up big after trading out of a huge Hillary position. Pure delusion, yet I canāt help but watch and popcorn.gif.
Yeah itās pure delusion this guy hasnāt faced any consequences for decades
To assume he wonāt face any consequences and then he will die
Itās what happens to rich people.
Itās worse than that. Everything you said is true but add that no president or former president has ever faced criminal repercussions for the countless crimes committed since the founding and the idea that trump will is just Q-level insanity.
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You should say 2359 or 0001 to avoid ambiguity