The struck out part is a non-starter.
“Illness” could be anything, too subjective. Same with “any non legal justice affiliated event”. I don’t even know what the fuck that is. But it pretty much could mean just about anything.
I’ll give you 3:2. My $1500 to your $1000. Only push is death.
I agree with this. But a guilty plea is a viable defense strategy for a more favorable outcome. How about if we just stipulate that our bet kicks in at the start of a trial? I don’t think there will be any plea offers after a trial is underway
Yes. DM me your venmo or payment info
I just want to keep these bets as closely related to what we’re actually arguing about. If a 9/11, covid, or worse event should occur, or if he has a stroke and is a vegetable who can’t stand trial, that won’t mean I was wrong and you were right. So let me make my position as clear as possible…
I think he’s going to be charged with more serious crimes. I think all these posts lol’ng that notion are ridiculous and I’m willing to bet on this. After he’s charged, if it goes to trial, I think he’ll be found guilty. If he makes a plea deal, that’s still an admission of guilt. Basically, I’m willing to bet that all you nay sayers and outrage addicts who keep insisting that he’s some super human anomaly who’s immune to being charged or found guilty by our justice system are wrong
I don’t think I’m being unreasonable and you should be able to find a suitable bet that you’re willing to take within those parameters. I shouldn’t have to keep fighting to eliminate these little gotchas. You guys are the ones saying nothing will ever happen
I’m wrong. Those numbers are from 2016 or before. Also
Eta By 2019 his cholesterol was elevated and he was taking Crestor. At 243 lbs, his BMI was over the obese threshold. The Big Macs might be catching up to him.
NYT article https://archive.ph/oQRA0
I’ll be donating to charity. If I dont mention it. Donate to a trans charity of your choice.
That has to be a cactus win
The problem here is not so much your thesis, which is of course wrong. The problem is that the parameters that you are insisting on make the bet very difficult to grade in an unambigous way. Let’s take a look at the problematic portion:
Death. That’s fine. It’s pretty unambiguous.
“Illness…preventing such a verdict”. This opens up a whole can of worms. What if he gets a cold during the trial? It makes him look tired and worn down. Jury acquits and then you come in saying if the “illness” didn’t make him look so old and weak, then surely they would have convicted. What if the trial makes throws him into depression. That’s a mental illness. You could argue it made him sympathetic and prevented a guilty verdict.
The dude is also teetering on the edge of dementia, and I’m sure we could probably find some neurologist or psychiatrist to find that he meets criteria even right now. It would be super easy (and probably true) to argue that he could be more effective in assisting in his own defense if he weren’t so afflicted. His attorneys decide to employ this strategy and they get some MAGA dipshit judge to bite. Now you argue that if it weren’t for his dementia he surely would have been found guilty.
The possibilities are endless, and while I’m sure you’re going to claim that you’d never try to angleshoot something like this, it doesn’t matter. Good bets are constructed so that they can be graded easily and without dispute.
I’d apply the same reasoning to “any non legal justice affiliated event preventing such a verdict”, except I’m not even sure what it means. Maybe you could give some examples of the types of things that you are talking about here.
Trump CDS trading ITT lol
This is silly. If at any time a jury or judge acquits him, of course you win the bet. I’m only trying to protect against non judicial events that no one has control over. Like if he has a stroke and is hospitalized for a year. Or if another pandemic outbreak occurs and courts get shut down for a year. I don’t think it’s fair this should count towards the 3 year time frame, since we’re betting on judicial outcome and such factors are completely out of judicial hands
I only want to bet on judicial outcomes, not on an overweight 76 year old’s health holding up or another covid like event occurring. I think a non justice related event that delays or prevents trial should either pause, or render the bet a push. Sorry if you don’t feel this is fair
Well, that’s what I think. The problem is that your preferred wording of your doesn’t guarantee that.
That’s nice that this is what you “want”. The problem is that your proposed wording of the bet allows anything as vague as “illness” to cancel it. Basically what you are asking me to do is just make the bet and then let you decide later what “illness” you think counts.
Again I don’t know what you mean by this. Maybe you could provide some examples of what you have in mind. Even just one?
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria
What about an arbitration council of three selected from unstuck posters to decide something like that?
Cactus you are putting a lot of effort into these what ifs?
He’s getting a guilty verdict never so just relax and enjoy life
Keeping track of one guy for 3 years is hard enough. Keeping track of 3 arbiters in addition to that seems a bit much. Maybe whatever judges we agree on won’t be posting any more in 3 years. Heck, maybe unstuck is completely dead in 3 yrs. Also, even the arbiters need to have clear guidelines to use in making a decision. The rules he is proposing are quite ridiculous.
Something as expansive as 'illness or any other non legal justice affiliated event preventing [a guilty] verdict is a push" is just not serious. At the extreme, one could say that anything affecting the verdict is a “legal justice affiliated event” since it had an effect on the legal proceeding. Now, I’m sure Cactus would tell us he would never do such a thing. And that may be, but it’s a pretty silly way to construct bets with randoms on the internet.
It absolutely was not
Trump being 243 in 2019 is laughably insane
More like Freddy Jackson
You guys have no shame. You’ve been laughing for months at the very thought of him ever being charged with a crime, let alone found guilty. Now, you also want an infinite number of gotcha scenarios…
Covid outbreak shuts down the courts for 8 months and it takes 3.2 years instead of 3 to find him guilty? Haha you lose!
He has a stroke and is hospitalized for 6 months and it takes 3.5 years to convict? Too bad, so sad, you lose again!
Yeah, I’m not doing that. You’re a long long way from all the lol he’s never getting charged @ SweetSummerChild! So I guess we’re at an impasse
Unless you want to eliminate a deadline and just make the bet that if he ever is found guilty, I win. If not, you win. Death is a push and I’m fine if you want 3 arbitrators deciding all other scenarios. Otherwise, I’m not betting $1000 that he doesn’t have a heart attack or there’s not another covid outbreak or 9/11 event
Only pick arbiters if there is a dispute. Pick different arbiters potentially for each dispute.
There’s already a dispute in that we can’t agree to terms. My position is pretty simple. Eventually he’s going to be found guilty of a crime if he lives long enough and is fit to stand trial. I guess his position isn’t so simple
