US withdrawal from Syria and the Turkish invasion of Rojava

Dont attribute some bullshit to me… my 1st post itt is a question, and you, the representative of the fancy-lad schemers gang, got all military intelligence on me

lol u

Im a hawk for them. You and I have had the Israeli discussion. Hilarious you don’t hesitate to characterize every forum member as sympathetic to Palestinians .

Parts of Rojava have been autonomous since 2012.

The independent Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq has bilateral relations with a lot of countries, including much of Europe, the US and Russia.

Well, then maybe you’re a hawk for Turkey here.

we can just leave it at that. I mean we’ve got idiots in disbelief over some PAC using a derivative of Socialism to characterize a Pelosi initiative in the Trump thread.

it put me in a sour mood lol

ok

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You assume Turkey doesn’t have dirt on Trump from the establishing of that property. I would bet Erdogan has enough dirt on Trump to put him in jail and/or kill his re-election.

Yeah, I’m sure he has dirt. Not sure if dirt would actually put Trump in jail or kill his re-election, but there is almost certainly some leverage - carrot and stick.

Not that this is Trump’s saying, but an expression I’ve heard: I don’t respond to bribes or threats, but combine the two and I’m your man.

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Wasn’t the quote a recent report used from an anonymous official who heard the call something like “Trump got rolled?”

It might go beyond him wanting something to benefit Trump Tower Istanbul to him being straight up blackmailed and caving in.

It is hard for me to ignore being heartbroken over this. Given what I knew about military logistics and the like, I, perhaps in a Dunning-Kruger sense, hoped that the slaughter might not start for a month or two, and in that time, while it’s unlikely, there would be an opportunity for Trump to be removed from office or resign or something, and maybe it could be stopped. At this point, I don’t think President Pelosi sworn in tomorrow could do any better for these people than a massive American military intervention that leaves tens of thousands of American troops dead and another order of magnitude more of folks in Rojava dead, on top of the Turkish and Russian casualties.

I thought war with Iran was the most likely source of mass death, but I was wrong. Of course we should have focused on the people who would be weak and vulnerable. And now, it is hard to see a way that this is less than genocide. I don’t see the American appetite to stop it with more war.

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Nothing kills tens of thousands of US troops. About 6000 US military have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last 18 years.

I think the US has a lot of leverage over Turkey, but not with Trump.

Gonna be lit when he hears saving the Kurds* would be a big political win and sends Americans back in to die. And by lit I mean I’ll literally douse myself with gasoline and walk into a volcano.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/ddale8/status/1182031313609596932

This just makes him a worse human.

We lost 50000 in Vietnam

It would take brilliant strategy and a lot of luck. If sworn in tomorrow, I’d try something like this:

  1. Immediately announce that America is going to honor it’s past commitment to the Kurds, and call on Turkey to stand down at once. Announce to the American people that on top of being morally just to save the Kurds and our other allies in the area, it’s a short-term (keeping ISIS down) and long-term (forming alliances and being trusted) national security issue.

  2. Implement the harshest sanctions possible on Turkey.

  3. Call upon NATO to kick Turkey out if the offensive continues.

  4. Call Erdogan and tell him that, so help me God, I’ll take my chances of being a one term president to stand up for the Kurds and I’ll make sure he goes down like Saddam or Gadaffi if he doesn’t pull out.

  5. Announce that we will begin military action on Turkish forces in 12 hours if they haven’t pulled back, and prepare to launch air strikes to support the Kurds. Announce that any Turkish positions in Northern Syria are subject to attack if they continue. Announce that any act of aggression toward civilians or population centers will be met with a harsh response on Turkish military installations inside Turkey. Give our troops on the ground the greenlight to defend themselves and the Kurds as well.

  6. Go to Congress for an AUMF.

  7. Call upon the UN to establish a peacekeeping force to protect the Kurds until such a time as they have formed a sovereign nation, at which point we will push NATO to invite them in.

Erdogan may call the bluff, knowing that we wouldn’t want to put a large number of boots on the ground, but I have a feeling that our air support would be a big enough threat and some non-insane saber rattling would get him to back down.

Unfortunately this could turn into a mass genocide in a matter of days, and Trump is still going to be in charge and we, the United States of America, are going to completely abdicate our moral responsibility to the Kurds and sit on the sidelines and watch a mass killing of people who just fought and died alongside us and at our direction.

This administration has done many heinous things. This tops the list, and the long term effects on our own national security will be profound. And deservedly so, I’m utterly ashamed of my government right now. I’m utterly ashamed that 99% of Americans don’t care much at all about this.

If you make that threat, it shouldn’t be a bluff.

I think this post, which I support the sentiment of wholeheartedly and have no doubt you’re sincere about, along with Rivaldo’s (I presume) trolling earlier in the thread show the horrendous position anyone who wants to think in concrete terms about a humane foreign policy is in.

What you’re proposing would be a massive shift in US foreign policy on so many levels. It would probably not be supported by any other countries. There’s a reason that no one is standing up for Rojava beyond the usual sad face statements - Turkey is by far the more important ally geopolitically, and as soon as they forced the issue (which they were always going to do) then everyone makes that calculation and goes from there.

Trying to say what the US ‘should’ do now, after so many errors previously, is impossible if you have a conscience. You can either advocate for things you know could never happen, or you can look for best practical case options that make you look like a hypocrite. That’s all done in a public debate about foreign policy that’s spectacularly ignorant, and where it’s commonplace for the worst dealers of death and instability to claim humanitarian justification with no pushback from the media or other politicians.

I usually try and post about this kind of thing without getting in to the morality of it, because the last thing I want to do is allow anyone to believe that the West’s foreign policy has any moral dimension at all. Sometimes that’s too difficult.

Everything is going to shit now. We mark the 30 year anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Still get wet eyes when watching the scenes from the embassy in Prague, the mass demonstrations and finally the night it all ended. Its the perfect example how peaceful protest can change something. But since then when was the last time this approach actually worked?
You often hear people say we have to try the diplomatic way. War cant be the solution. But when has the actually worked in the last years?
Iran, NK, Venezuela and all the other failed/rogue states survived sanctions for so long with the regimes still in place.
We can criticise Trump for his move but thats about it. Europe has no answer. Everyone else has no solution. Russia will find a way that the new situation advances their agenda. I fear in few month we will be here and Turkey has crushed the Kurds with who knows how many casualties. But what will happen? Maybe we throw them out of Nato? But Europe still relies on them for keeping the refugees at bay. It is all a huge clusterfuck. After yesterdays attempted mass shooting in Germany you have to scroll heavily on news pages to find something about the situation in Syria. Our next door neighbors are just a bigger concern for us than some people we only know from TV. The Kurds get blandishments from us then we turn around and watch helpless how they get destroyed.

Also one simple reason that Turkey will not fight Isis effectively is because Isis was their ally for years, and many groups functionality almost identical (containing ex-Isis combatants) are part of the force now invading. Expecting Turkey to combat Isis is like hiring the US military to fight Blackwater.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1181922569219383296