Good idea.
They completed the encirclement of the Soviet Union. That made any Midnight Express stereotypes an advantage.
https://twitter.com/RobertDeNiroUS/status/1181222719804837888?s=19
Manipulating the Kurds into disarming before greenlighting the Turkish invasion is abhorrent and goes a long way in helping Putinâs narrative that America canât be trusted.
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Wait holy shit, Turkey is already launching a large offensive or is this type of attack normal? Was this an overnight deal? We stopped offering all support immediately? I figured this would at least be us withdrawing over time until campaign season begins for Trump.
Turkey have been building up men and materials on the border for a long time and threatening invasion. There was lots of movement leading up to the phone call the other day. Also, this isnât an operation by just the Turkish army, a lot of the fighters will be militia based in Syria already. Turkey already controls part of Syria after two previous invasions.
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Timing seems crazy. Youâd think theyâd wait for America to be pretty much out before attacking and risking Americaâs public opinion forcing Trump to stay in. I mean once weâre out there is no way any politician would send us back in, but seems like itâd be pretty easy to say hey I was gonna leave but Turkey fucked up so now we must stay. I mean he already threatened to leave once and stayed.
I really wish we could hear what was said on that call, I bet itâs horribleness would shock even many of us if it makes Turkey feel comfortable to instantly attack.
Then again I understand foreign affairs far less than most.
Iâd love to hear the call. With anyone other than Trump Iâd say Erdogan made it clear he was calling his bluff and would go anyway, but with Trump itâs perfectly possible it was all bullshit and flattery which he knew would get the job done.
Finding out whatâs going on on the ground is always difficult, but from what Iâve seen then this tweet seems to accurately describe what the US has done since the announcement. It seems like there is coordination between US troop movements and immediate Turkish aims. Though this is the sort of thing that could be proved very wrong very quickly.
https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1181340905183338497
Nothing on here Iâm looking to buy, butâŚ
Wait what?
Try that one again, Bryce. Youâve got your wars mixed up.
MM MD
Also, to add more to the confusion that is US policy, we are now on Iranâs side.
The PKK != Rojava, but there are a lot of connections and the Turks consider them the same.
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Iâm not an expert either, and you may be right. But Iâd disagree Austria-Hungary was a âStupidâ country - it was actually a pretty functional empire for centuries, and fell apart due to Hungarian stupidity and poor choices of allies before WWI. If youâd like a good read, pick up âDanubiaâ on amazon - you can get a used copy for less that $10 - Simon Winder is a great writer, and it will give you a different slant on a complicated country.
MM MD
When you have a hereditary monarchy, a very inbred one at that, you sometimes end up with Ferdinand the Firsts. So, this is half talking out my butt, but the Austria-Hungary Empire was an anachronism in the 19th Century and shouldnât really have survived Napoleon or Republicanism in order to limp along long enough to be dominated by Prussians/Bismark. But, Metternich was a smart dude and kept things on life support.
Fucking Napoleon, talk about a guy who didnât know when to stop betting. Guy gets like ~200bbs, by far the tournament leader, then decides to double up Spain for no reason, goes on tilt, tries to force 2nd in chips Russia to fold a huge pot with an unmade hand (to an opponent who is never folding), gets crippled, gets down to under 2bb in Elba, somehow wins 5 double ups in a row, nevertheless has to take like a 40 60 flip with like 23bbs against the new chip leader Britain who has been steadily amassing chips the whole time and can well afford a call.
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It might be more like Poland, a perpetually crapped-upon people split between several countries before gaining independence after WW1.
Lot more complicated (and interesting) than that. Franz Joseph lived WAY too long - he was a half-bright insanely conservative turd of a human being - Franz Ferdinand had any number of faults, but understood that there was a desperate need for reform in the empire but couldnât undertake anything until the old guy kicked off, which he refused to do - and Ferdinand got offed in a million-to-one series of events in Sarajevo (where he never should have been, anyway, but he primarily went to spend time with his wife who was treated like shit by Joseph because she wasnât âregalâ enough) and he wanted her to enjoy herself. A malignant shit of a human being named Dragutin DimitrijeviÄ in the Serbian secret service arranged the murder of Ferdinand to prevent him from reforming the Empire, which would have made Serbian independence less likely - not that it did any good - Serbia got jammed into Yugoslavia after WWI because no one had any time for that shit any more, and crushed by the Naziâs in WWII. (he ended up getting shot after being involved in ANOTHER assassination plot in Serbia in 1917.) Itâs entirely possible that if Franz Joseph had choked on an olive in 1913, that the Austrian Hungary empire could have endured for any number of years, and that WWI and WWII would have never happened. Or not. The Balkans are a weird place, from a historical point of view. Lots of neat stamps, though - Iâm a collector.
MM MD
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https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1181733311108075522?s=19
Who was saying it wouldnât help Russia? Funny, Russian backed forces are working with the Turks in the prep for invasion, must just be a coincidence.
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I was. Russia and the regime are taking advantage of the situation and ready to sieze ground to the south. This betrayal was coming so of course they have a plan to execute in the eventuality - not every countryâs policy is written on the fly by a moron.
As I said, if it forces Rojava to deal with Assad it will have been a net positive for them. If it doesnât, Turkey takes ground and a war or a stalemate ensues it absolutely wonât be.
I post this partly as I woke up to âTurkey about to take over the fight against Isisâ headlines. However it does also show why Turkey taking ground in Syria would not be positive for Assad and Russia. I donât say this because I think theyâre great guys against terrorism, itâs because the jihadist militias are who they actually fight with and thatâs whoâs invading. I love a good, complicated triple bluff as much as anyone, but sometimes things are that simple.