US Kills Soleimani in Airstrike

He’s trolling them, assuming most of the MAGA crowd are cowards like their Dear Leader.

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https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/1212916086057897987?s=19

Ah ok. I took him seriously lol.

What was the timezone of the tweet? The market learned about the strike at about 8pm Eastern. (Edit: seemed to, at least.)

That tweet was a screenshot of Gums post that had subsequently been deleted. The original was made 2 days prior to the strike.

My opinion:

Iran, unlike the US, actually possesses some intelligence about these things.

They aren’t going to undertake any direct strikes on high-ranking US officials or attacks on US properties or whatever. They are going to use Hezbollah/Syria/other proxies to make life hell for the US and Israel in the Middle East. Iraq will be completely destabilized. To the extent it doesn’t hurt them, they will let ISIS completely regain strength. Who knows what’s going to happen with Israel. Saudi Arabia will probably be hit again (whatever). If they can exercise any sort of economic pressure without hurting themselves (this is trickier), they will definitely do so.

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Did Putin sanction this? Was this a topic of conversation when they spoke a few days ago? That top secret server is literal treasure trove

BTW has anyone been talking about the fact that this is all directly because of the Iraq War? This is what happened as a direct result of that stupidity. IT IS ALL CONNECTED.

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I agree with a lot here as well, it’s really just the timing. If they stick to a course involving ‘deniability’ then that is important, and is absolutely something they’ve employed in the past. They will have options, I’m just saying I think they could deliberately involve a military response that doesn’t happen immediately.

I also think that not all Iranian ‘proxies’ are always doing what Iran wants them to. Part of what differentiates Iran’s approach to these things from the US is that they act with people who are already have local power bases. That gives them long term stability and makes them more powerful, but it also means they have independent concerns and often act, especially tactically, for their own reasons. If the attack is from one of the PMU in Iraq, who also had commanders killed in the strike, there’s every chance they are not acting on specific orders from Iran. Not that Iran will be too sad about it or anything.

As for the crowd, who knows with Iran. Obviously they have an internal audience that needs managing, but again, this is not their first provocation. Also, Iran appears to be currently keeping some of its population in line by pretty tough repression, they have that option too if they deem it useful. They aren’t squeamish, but I don’t imagine they need it to keep their own deplorables in line - and that’s who will be out shouting for American blood (if that crowd is all there for their own, uncoerced reasons).

But, anyway, as I say, I don’t think this is the way it definitely will happen - I don’t know - just it wouldn’t be out of keeping for them to talk tough now and act more slowly, and, if they intend to try and keep europe and others on board diplomatically (to the wishy washy extent that they are) is probably needed.

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All these Q’s followed by vowels which are not U’s are making me extremely apprehensive

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https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/1213055862606045185?s=19

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https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1213049998398697472?s=19

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Steve Inskeep is helpfully repeating administration talking points and letting some general ramble on about how brilliant Trump’s Iraq strategy is. :+1:

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Fuck NPR. This is why.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1213075060812107778

https://mobile.twitter.com/IvanTheK/status/1213060366873366528

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It’s always projection.

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If I want to root for outcomes that are bad for Trump, what should I be rooting for?

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https://mobile.twitter.com/thehill/status/1213088902208208902

https://mobile.twitter.com/MsSparky58/status/1213090008913055746
https://mobile.twitter.com/LizSly/status/1213039647888162817