Well, I got “Fear of not getting to renew the lease on the Sevatapol naval base” as the first thing cited that resembles a legitimate gripe Russia would have if Ukraine joined NATO.
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Of course, but it’s also only sensible to ascribe less probability to following through on the threat every time it is made and not followed through upon.
For one, I wasn’t talking to you. For two, I thought all your points above were simply “backdrop for Russian motivations” and not actual arguments that should be taken seriously by independent observers.
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I completely agree with you that Putin and other Russian nationalists see the long-standing relationship between Russia and Ukraine as being more intertwined and intimate than it’s relationships with other countries formerly or presently under it’s influence.
Consequently, I can see why these hardliners believe Ukraine needs to be brought back home.
Although I’m not an expert on Russia, I do have some expertise about how abusive people act when their long-time partners try to leave.
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Im not following this as closely day-to-day as most people here, but just curious, what happens to the Ukranian efforts if the House cuts US funding off in 2023? Is this a case where Europe can carry the mantle and/or Ukraine already has enough to fight and just is going to have to deal with getting more funding for post-war efforts later or are they totally fucked?
I’d be shocked if a Republican house did actually cut off funding. The Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor of the US proxy war and the Democrats are literally unanimously supporting whatever Biden wants for Ukraine. If the Republicans win the house I’ll bet they’ll do some kabuki opposition of what Biden asks for and then pass something smaller than what he asks for, or maybe with more oversight and some hearings. But substantially cut off funding? I’d be shocked. Hopefully I’m wrong.
But to answer your actual question, I think they’d be hosed if US funding was slashed. Their 2020 GDP was $155 billion. It’s tough to get exact numbers but I think the military and other aid from the US has been $70-80 billion. Biden claims to only want to send $50 billion for all of 2023, but I’m dubious it would stay that low. Could Europe pay the US share if the US bails? They could afford to, but can they send the weapons that the US could? I doubt it but I’m not sure.
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A full withdrawal of US support would be a really big hit. Weapons systems are really important and depending on how the budget was written, we could also be looking at a loss of training/surveillance/intelligence capabilities. I don’t think we know exactly how much the US is helping with picking out targets and providing info about Russisn troop movements, but I’m pretty sure it’s not zero.
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Even if the rest of NATO COULD pick up the slack, I’m not sure they will. If US support goes away completely, I think it becomes a lot harder to keep the NATO coalition invested in the fight. Are France and Germany really going to pick up the mantle?
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That’s a very good point about surveillance and intelligence. US and British spy planes are operating along Ukraine’s border and in the Black Sea. One UK EW plane even had a Russian missile launched at it accidently late last month. It’s all secret so who knows the extent, but the Ukrainian military seems to be operating very very closely with Western militaries and intelligence. And it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s hundreds of US spies and special forces on the ground in Ukraine helping to liaison with the US military.
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Probably… until he gets Impeached for Iran Contra II
gonna have to frame this one
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Even if the House stopped funding (very doubtful), Biden has other options to support Ukraine and will continue to do so. In any event, there are at least 15 GOP senators, including Mitch, who have been solidly supportive of Ukraine. No use running hypotheticals that only move one variable when like 10 different variables are in the mix.
Would Dems have something to gain electorally in 2024 if funding is cut off, Russia wins, and Republicans can be blamed for the fall of Ukraine?
I hope Ukraine goes full Mossad on every single last one of those fuckers (and many more).
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Did you just learn about this conflict?
One of the engineers did not deny their affiliation to this unit but indicated they could not safely answer the questions we put to them, and thanked our team for alerting them to the upcoming publication
They found the one polite Russian in Russia
“Ukraine is important to Russian geopolitics” sounds to me like “Vaccines sometimes have bad side effects”. It’s true, but there’s a misinformation elephant in the room that can’t be ignored.
It’s also pretty rich to talk down to ones opponents about the importance of Ukraine to Russia when that much has been obvious and extensively discussed at least since 2014, and then again when Vindman testified about Trump seeking bribes. It’s not that we don’t know Russia wants to dominate Ukraine. It’s that we deny that they have an inalienable right to.
When Trump is elected again and pulls the US out of NATO, will anyone on this forum be in favor of that?