Ukraine, Russia, and the West

I was holding out for Louis CK in Ukrainian.

I know little about military tactics generally, and basically nothing about the geography of Ukraine and the way it has forces deployed, but my initial thought was that the fallback scenario would be to retreat and try to build up a perimiter around Kiev. That allows you to at least try to protect the key government officials (if they go into exile, might as well just surrender, imo), the airport (as at least one way of getting supplies people in/out of the country if the land routes get cut off), and forces the Russians to fight in a more urban environment. Also, morbidly, fighting in cities as opposed to tank v. tank battles in more rural areas probably increases the civilian death count which might increase the odds that the West provides help [assuming that (a) Western involvement is a Ukrainian objective and (b) the government is willing to risk more civilian casualties to achieve it].

I guess one other option would be to just retreat West, but (a) giving up Kiev this early basically seems like the ballgame is over and (b) you’re really hanging your forces in and around Donbas out to dry because you’ve expanded the distance between them and potential reinforcements (and the Russian forces coming from Belarus might be in the way)

Of course, I’m just an idiot with access to Google maps, so the tl/dr is a shrug emoji

Time to start wearing heavier coats.

image

This looks like a lost Uber driver trying to find his pickup.

7 Likes
1 Like

I can confirm that just checking this thread is a lot better for my mental health than going on twitter. Thank you everyone for providing updates.

2 Likes

What happens if Ukrainian forces retreat to the west and the Russian air force goes after them? Russian pilots aren’t exactly known for their restraint. Are NATO air defenses going to ignore flights near/possibly over their borders?

1 Like

https://twitter.com/sc23cc/status/1496876111342489612

29 Likes

this was basically my thought, would Ukraine try to retreat West hoping that Russia doesn’t get too close and trigger what happened in the Korean War?

funny post:

two russian tanks stalled while making their way around Kharkiv. local men dragged the soldiers out and beat up their faces.

2 Likes

The idea is that if they pull far enough West, then Russian planes can’t get to them without risking entering NATO airspace.

I don’t know how it works if you’re a fighter pilot on a combat mission, but it seems trivially easy to momentarily lose track of exactly where you are and end up somewhere you’re not supposed to be.

How do you get supplies through Russian controlled airspace?

certain airport ground vehicles have the same transponder that these websites use to track the planes. most of the time these are automatically filtered out but you see them from time to time.

this is a livestream of kiev maidan square. if anyone is watching for assault to get there in 48 or 96 hours, could try watching it

My god these idiotic questions are giving me flashbacks and serious rage

Biden is doing better than I expected in this speech, although I don’t feel confident these sanctions are enough or will work.

The sanctions seem like weak sauce.

right putin doesn’t care but you go after enough of his enablers and maybe there’s some very very small chance one of them decides this isn’t worth it

don’t think they will go hard enough with that though either

Apparently they’re trying to evacuate Indian students. Air India just gives zero fucks about flying into a war zone to pick them up.

1 Like