Another Russian helicopter taking down a Ukrainian missile! At this rate, Ukraine is going to run out of missiles!
sorta fits here. Proekt and Meduza journalists from russia came out today with a gigantic piece claiming that Putin may have thyroid cancer. they pull their data from the logs of which doctors travel with putin and visit his residences.
If he got it from Chernobyl in 1986 then that’s a giant plot twist.
The UA MoD has denied carrying out the helicopter attack
The helicopter attack is weird.
Does Ukraine even have the ability to do an air strike in Russian territory?
Even if they do, they might not want to do it because this might change the perception of the war from being purely defensive. Strikes on Russian soil could increase the support of Russian citizens for the war although they seem to be pretty much behind it already. International perception is also important. Some countries might not want to supply weapons if they could end up being used on Russian territory.
But if it wasn’t Ukraine then it only leaves a Russian false flag operation.
I didn’t read about the attack, assume it was shot out of the air but maybe it’s not false flag but just a mistake by Russian air defense thinking it was a UKR helicopter?
Seems like I am confused about which people are talking about a helicopter getting shot down by a missile and which are talking about a helicopter attacking oil infrastructure in Russia.
Maybe. There are different levels of support. Russia still has many options to escalate. The Russian population might be okay with completely flattening Ukrainian cities if there is now an actual thread of attacks on the motherland.
Seems like Ukraine has a very good knowledge of Russian anti-air defenses if they can launch a helicopter attack like that.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Sometimes when people are shooting at you, you shoot back.
I think UKR making a decision based on whether it helps winning the hearts and minds of Russian citizens who are fully bought into propaganda is a dumb strategy. However offensive operations into Russia certainly should make NATO much more hesitant to increase their support which should be a major factor in their decision.
I was thinking about this earlier today. The big picture is that Russia is trying to reposition whatever forces they can to Donbas to try and win some kind of victory there. Ukraine can make this harder to do if they force Russia to keep defensive forces in place in its own territory.
I think there’s a good chance we see ground forces raiding across the border too. It’s just not realistic for Ukraine to treat the border as some kind of safe zone for Russia where they can regroup and resupply for new attacks.
Tougher question is what happens with Belarus if Russia redeploys away from the border but continues using the country as a base for air strikes.
Seeing Ukraine curb stomp Russia within 5 weeks of the invasion is probably one of the most delicious things so far.
Kiev front is relieved.
Now more resources can be sent to the Eastern portion of Ukraine.
How does Putin negotiate an off ramp when he is retreating?
OSint types seem to agree that Russia’s positions NW of Kyiv are encircled. Not clear how much of their forces were previously withdrawn from the area, though.
https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1509862876433235972?s=21&t=_Xhm7zQZOeT4VB2oR6WHyA
I might agree if this were a rocket attack, but I think a helicopter attack is much different as it contradicts the current Russian narrative that they are easily winning the war. A rocket attack you could explain away pretty easily, but if Ukraine has the ability to send helicopters into your territory, you can’t really square that with the narrative that Ukraine’s military has been destroyed and Russia is now just securing the Eastern areas to keep the people there safe.
I am curious how Russian media is covering it.
I’ve been wondering how this war would have played out if Russia were not a nuclear power. Would a US-backed coalition already be in Ukraine and fighting?