Ukraine, Russia, and the West

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1500815037589504009

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https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1502923246060118019

https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1502923248232710146

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502924665714585602

The death toll of the missile attacks on Lviv keeps going up.

Soldiers are not refusing orders in Belarus. That is literally suicide. For it to work the refusal needs to be at a command level and that is why replacing them can work. I wouldn’t want to be a Russian lieutenant leading Belarus soldiers in Ukraine though as you would have to watch your back and the enemy.

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So is it basically the commanders saying something to their bosses like: “Every foot-soldier adamantly does not want to go kill or die in Ukraine. This won’t end well.”?

https://twitter.com/Bershidsky/status/1502937919362904070

This part makes no sense to me. Ukraine: sure we won’t join NATO. A year later quickly before the Russian military can mount another invasion, Ukraine joins NATO.

Is there some real world mechanism to stop Ukraine from joining NATO? I guess a pledge from Russia to nuke Kyiv if they join NATO might do it?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1502939673123078144

The mood seems a little more downbeat than usual on twitter today (it’s daytime over there). There’s chatter about Russians making progress and not as many videos of destroyed Russian equipment.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1502946428884332544

Yes. Any resistance comes from the higher ups. Foot-soldiers just have to do what they are told at least until they are deployed. Of course once they are in the war zone who knows what will happen to an officer going completely against the will of their soldiers.

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https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1502967913271205892

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1502975470928805888

Seems like Lviv might have some spies giving away the barracks of the foreign legion volunteers.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1502830531100168207

shit like this is why it’s important to actually have people with experience involved in foreign policy. You see all this polling about what joe sixpack thinks about a no fly zone or whatever, nobody understands what any of that means.

In my business it would be like polling the general public about their website passwords and you would get shit like “we should impose a government requirement that you change your password every 30 days”

joe brandon is a fucking shitbag domestically but he’s absolutely done everything just about as perfectly in this conflict as it could possibly have been done so far.

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Lordy, the brain washing is strong over there. Talking to my grandmother is… something. Imagine the worst/dumbest poster in 2+2 politics, and multiply by 10.

https://twitter.com/KuldkeppMart/status/1502992375098253315

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https://twitter.com/adamrangpr/status/1502991045746905089

https://twitter.com/adamrangpr/status/1502991650754375681

FoxNews - exact same.

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Presumably the “security guarantees” part is meant to give Ukraine real protection against being invaded, making NATO membership unnecessary. Also, some NATO parties are signing onto the deal to give the guarantees, so they’re likely agreeing that Ukraine will stay out of NATO as well.

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I am just re-reading The Road to Unfreedom for obvious reasons and that is one of the exact points Timothy Snyder makes:

Must read, if you haven‘t already. Every time the word Ukraine comes up is quite chilling.

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So anyone still believes that the “good” people will win? I doubt it. Its another bad year for the “good” side. When you are some kind of idealist how can you still believe humans can do better?
So even if Russia will be denied the Ukraine what will they leave behind other than bombed out cities, destroyed infrastructure, orphans, a displaced population and a traumatized generation? When Macron and Scholz had their call with Putin and he told them his lies I wished they would have countered with “We make you responsible for every person that cant be fed because you destroyed one of the biggest grain producers in the world.”
I read somebody saying “Marshallplan money”. Do you really believe that? It wont take long after the war is over and most wont care anymore. We turn a blind eye to a lot of shit on this planet. Why would it be different this time? I was visiting family this weekend. They were concerned where all this leads to but you could also sense that there is only very little sympathy that this could lead to a less comfortable life. We see the impact on gas prices already and we will see it on the prices on natural resources. And I assume they wont be alone. Big chunks of the population(esp. current middle class) are not willing to suffer for long. They werent willing to pay for a switch to clean energy and they wont pay to rebuild Ukraine. Again and again you read stuff that we should spend the money here instead of sending it abroad. Germany found 100 billion to buy equipment for the army but we couldnt find the money for healthcare, schools etc before? That wont work and it will lead to discontent. We just left Afghanistan and let the Taliban take over control. Why do we care for the Ukraine so much? We dont care for Yemen, we dont care for the atrocities in Myanmar or Ethiopia. Why would anyone believe we will care for Ukraine very long? It wont be long before we get back to doing business with Russia once we realize we cant help the Ukraine anymore.
Why are we afraid of risking WW3 or a nuclear war for defending certain freedoms and rights? So that a small group of westerners can keep living their life when the majority of humans live under pretty bad conditions.
I am not advocating for war with Russia, I am very much afraid of dying but this whole shitshow just shows that evil will prevail. Nothing will ever change. If that doesnt wake us up I dont really know how bad it has to get for us to change. Maybe I have to accept that for the sake of my sanity or become an alcoholic to drown the sadness.

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It’s not Ukraine, but…

https://www.givedirectly.org/

I hold a Facebook fundraiser for GiveDirectly every year. It’s a kickass charity.

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