Ukraine, Russia, and the West

Update on Stoli

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Nah. That fucker is all talk. He’d probably do pretty close to what Biden is doing. At least he wouldn’t Trump it up.

I thought when you posted it that that was a pretty good example of how the internet gets you to confirmation bias your way to greater certainty. As far as I could tell the article didn’t even link the assessment, so I can’t say for sure, but these sort of “assessments” are commonplace within US intelligence and basically represent what a few guys think about something. They are not like official conclusions that end up getting delivered to the President or something.

Moreover, the assessment, well over a decade old now, assumed that Ukraine was firmly lodged in the Russian sphere of control. It wasn’t written for a world where Russia is so much on the back foot that it is having to invade Ukraine to avoid it completely falling into the Western sphere, and where the shortcomings of the Russian armed forces are being painfully exposed. Using this assessment to support your argument is begging the question, because our disagreement revolves around not what Putin thinks about while jerking off, but whether Russian weakness rules out a shooting war with NATO. To apply that assessment to our current world includes as an assumption that the course Putin chooses will not depend on whether Russia is weak or strong.

Guess Ukraine shouldn’t have worn such short skirts if she didn’t want to get raped.

This is an absolute fucking disgrace. This will be a stain on our people for 50+ years. I am fucking ashamed to have been born where I was born right now. Disgrace.

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Is there any chance that Ukraine can chase a Russian division into Poland and draw in NATO forces or will the Russkis die/surrender before getting that far?

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The Russian people are living under a pretty brutal dictator, idk how much we can blame we can assign them.

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I don’t want to derail the thread (was waiting for a new one which looks like it’s not coming), and I’m not a huge fan of guilt by association, but this Mearsheimer guy does have a bit of a checkered past.

Mearsheimer as part of a long defense of Atzmon:

Here’s Atzmon:

David Irving:

Now to be fair, Atzmon’s comments came after Mearsh’s article. But still, not great.

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why is this thread spending so much time talking about some dude I’ve literally never heard of before’s opinion

you guys go on the most ridiculous derails

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It’s a discussion forum brah, we’re allowed to have discussions

he has a point, we should focus discussion on the thread’s original topic instead of some dumb derail.

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K well I think it’s relevant that the OP of the thread heavily references a holocaust denier

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It’s a data point. It’s not the be all/end all.

None of this changes the level of certainty of the pragmatic course of action, nor the importance of the moral course of action — both of which we have a fundamental disagreement on.

I think the West has a moral obligation to not shun Ukraine if its people want the same kinds of freedoms they can see in their neighbors. Otherwise the entire premise of Western values is a lie.

I also think the West did the right thing from a pragmatic POV, and it doesn’t seem all that close.

Time to start a scrap metal salvage business in the region

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We could have all done more.

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https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/italy-seizes-156-million-oligarch-wealth-pressing-putin-83267970

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1500218832039907333?s=20&t=FM8YuF5eBd09_yaAT5c4vQ

He’s making a list, checking it twice

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he’s gonna find out who’s naughty or nice, putin is nukin’ your town

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So the only reason we won’t control the air above Ukraine is nukes? That seems like a bad reason, madman either gonna end humanity or he isn’t. “Let him take Ukraine and hope he stops there” seems hopelessly naive.

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