Russia won’t run out of equipment, supplies or men. The only hope is that the Russian population gets too restless because of the casualty count and economic impact and Putin gets afraid he might need that army to stop an uprising. Ukraine is not able to retake territory Russia captured so Russia can just pause and wait for reinforcements and then push further again.
I still think Russia takes Kiev eventually through sheer numbers, but honestly if they keep bungling things up this badly, I have to wonder if maybe Ukraine has a chance to defend long enough to win. Putin needs this over with quickly so he can start dealing with the catastrophic economic fallout.
This is pretty interesting. The whole war is baffling. I kinda wonder if Russia’s whole military is just a Potemkin village set up for Putin, and he bought into it.
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Ukraine has retaken captured territory several times already.
https://twitter.com/eskelinen_antti/status/1499905580537982978
Dang, I think we’re hitting the tweet preview limit again.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-germany-putin-trump-idUSKBN19U0HX
Simpler times. Too bad this never happened. At least I hope it never happened.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499897531286831105
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499898708988764161
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There is fog of war obviously and I can’t vouch for how accurate this or any other map is
It looks though as if Russian forces slowly but surely are surrounding Kyiv. More forces are coming from the East. Ukraine isn’t winning on any front. It appears to me their only chance is a war of attrition were it becomes too costly to go on. I am afraid before that happens they will change tactics and just flatten cities with bombardment and artillery.
https://twitter.com/peterpomeranzev/status/1499907693162680322
https://twitter.com/peterpomeranzev/status/1499907694450421760
https://twitter.com/peterpomeranzev/status/1499907696149110793
I watched the first part of a UN meeting on yesterday’s doings. Some highlights
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UK Rep: First time a state has attacked a fueled and functioning nuclear power plant.
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IAEA Director General: Civilians were among the group at the plant trying to keep the Russians out. Coordinating with Russian forces and plant operators. Focus is on safe operation, not politics.
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US Rep: Russians haven’t allowed a shift change at Chernobyl in a week.
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Russian Rep: This is some bullshit.
USSR constantly ran out of equipment and supplies in afghanistan, which was the last time they went to war with a nation of comparable size. ussr was also much bigger population than current russia. they didn’t quite run out of men, but they might as well have. gorbachev had to start shadow-drafting bodies out of all but the top universities. public opinion turned precisely because of how many dead and wounded were returning home.
of course, that took years.
i told you guys this early on. also krugman already used the Potemkin Army metaphor.
https://twitter.com/allinwithchris/status/1499922642773626881
I guess there would be no war if Trump was still president.
https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/1499736417534025728?t=TEeJXX2YFO7YxRBOWzABLA&s=19
Heartbreaking, but completely unsurprising in 2022 China. Perfect microcosm of modern Chinese nationalist values.
Sadder is the extent to which large parts of the Chinese population are more pro-Putin/anti-Ukraine than the line the government is taking.
Taking land and keeping it while your supply lines get longer is opening Russia up to Guerilla ambush attacks on its convoys.
This war gets increasing difficult from Russian war point of view.
Spain’s La Liga, on the other hand, wants (needs) the money to keep flowing.
the picture is plotting a lot of advances generously there. russian convoys have been able to stay on roads and advance from town to town (unless they are stopped), but that does not translate into swaths of territory. they are not spread out and advancing like a front, not even where they are most successful (Kherson/Mykolaev). They are still in advance to Kyiv mode, meaning that behind the lines they are not establishing control, they are trying to roll through. but you also gotta consider that UKR isn’t defending most towns. they are focusing on regional centers. that’s where most people live, that’s where VSU has the advantage. elsewhere it’s still ambush and drone tactics and local resistance. Mykolayev is defended by a mix of police and troops.
just to add to morale warfare, here’s UKR publishing the list of pilots who fired/bombed on civilians.
Well that’s good news. Also why they aren’t bombing the crap out of Kyiv yet.