Putin was hoping Trump would be reelected and further destabilize nato for another 4 years before Putin committed to invasion. Now that it looks like Trump won’t be returning, best to invade at the low tide of nato unity, before they have time to regroup.
1 Like
it’s hubristic to completely buy your own propaganda about troop preparedness. so many of them weren’t even told they would be invading.
Interesting thread on the Russian economy and relations with China.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1499855858456567809?s=20&t=HL7UPM6GpWBGX6X0VkPnHA
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1499886328284078080?s=20&t=HL7UPM6GpWBGX6X0VkPnHA
https://twitter.com/srodan/status/1499816010404220940
My wife was here tonight, not me. But wow, how is this guy pulling this off?
3 Likes
The reasons to pessimistic are obvious - Russians have superior mechanized forces, far superior air weaponry, etc.
There are some interesting reasons to be optimistic though:
- Raw troop numbers (Russia’s 190k, to UKR’s 100k standing army + ??? reservists and domestic and foreign volunteers) seem to be about equal if not favoring the Ukrainians.
- Russian morale is obviously horrible. UKR’s couldn’t be higher.
- Western allies are providing seemingly unlimited small arms weaponry - including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.
- UKR is receiving up-to-the-second reconnaissance from the US and NATO. This to me is a big wildcard. When has a defending army ever had this level of battlefield intelligence support?
- Shitty ill-maintained Russian equipement - well documented itt.
- The next 4-6 weeks is the muddy time in N. Ukraine. Russian vehicles have to stick to the roads, where they’re sitting ducks, and advances can be stopped in their tracks.
- The level of sanctions hitting Russia are the real deal.
- Russia has now committed almost all of its staged forces, and is apparently pulling in 60-year-old tanks from the far east.
- Russian’s see Ukrainians as their brothers. It’s the worst possible country to attack other than Belarus (also one reason I think things will be easier next time for Putin).
- UKR’s 20 or so TB2 Turkish drones are not enough to turn the tide of battle, but are enough to strike fear into a siege-laying army.
I feel like there are some more I’m forgetting.
8 Likes
Looking at the video, I’m not buying the explanation. Those hubs would probably have grease, not oil for lubrication. And those seals wouldn’t dry rot inside a hub with oil on one side. And if they did somehow and oil was running out it’d be splattered all the way around the tire as it turned, not in one line straight down.
Maybe the vehicle is out of commission for some other break down, or stuck, or it’s just an out of context picture.
1 Like
There’s been some scuttlebutt on twitter that Ze’s in Lviv now. The Russians of course are saying he’s in Poland.
I appreciate this accounting. I also understand where the optimism comes from. But I see shit like the Minions meme, and I’m like, I don’t know, smells like hubris to me. As always, hope I’m wrong.
Most of the experts had this thing over in 3 days. So there’s already been a lot of defying predictions by UKR.
1 Like
I don’t think Putin is monomaniacally bent on reconquering the Soviet Union, but I think it’s fair to treat that as his #1 priority.
But if it was potentially true except they didn’t get the benefit of capturing codes or whatever, then they should brag about it to give Russia something extra to worry about.
4 Likes
Despite all of that the Russian forces make progress on all fronts. If the forces around Kyiv and at the southern front are able to connect then all of the Ukrainian forces in the East will be cut off from supplies.
In general you don’t want to sleep in your vehicle if you can avoid it as that is the target. Much better to sleep in your tent or any house/structure nearby. You still need to patrol though so you won’t be getting much sleep anyway. Glad I never got into a war as it was miserable even during exercises.
3 Likes
It makes way more sense for Putin to invade while Trump was in office but I think it’s likely Covid delayed his invasion plans. Pre-vaccine there was so much more variance when a virus can get your entire army sick.
Exactly.
Maybe they’re scared NATO will issue a no-fly zone if they bomb too much.
They’re making no progress on the push to Kiev from the north, maybe negative progress. They also got routed at Hostomel a couple days ago.
But other than that the main hope is the Russian army just runs out of supplies, men and machines before it can do that.
Meh. Given the Russian equipment performance so far maybe we should just assume the nukes won’t work either. :/
1 Like