Ukraine, Russia, and the West

Timeline is vague, but looks like Exxon might be pulling back.

https://twitter.com/exxonmobil/status/1498813830801076225?t=E2KPyXBMx4X1Piac0bcvRw&s=19

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I’ve seen a ton of reports that Putin has shut down all media that isn’t complete propaganda. Not good.

https://twitter.com/LauraEdelson2/status/1498742309265059843

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Pretty standard. All it means is the war isn’t going as planned, so it’s a good thing.

i nominate RM for commendation

He’s not wrong

https://twitter.com/mhikaric/status/1498508957563895810?s=21

I can’t quite put my finger on it but it feels like the current consensus has some major cognitive dissonance, but I’m operating on approximately 4 hours sleep in the past 40 hours or so

It’s because to protect Ukraine will escalate, but saying we will protect NATO de-escalates since it’s a clear hard boundary for Russia to respect. It’s not about Ukraine or protecting countries, it’s to prevent large scale war.

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Is that an artificial construct we’ve made, or is that how things are? I’m just not sure

It seems like the west has given an effective green light for Putin to bomb the shit out of Ukraine, which sucks, but any other choice means millions of Sklansky deaths.

If the sanctions keep up and China doesn’t bail them out, the Russian economy is toast, though.

putin thinks this is a street fight between two street bullies, because he is one. bullies don’t back down until they get hit where it hurts.

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Ukraine is in an unlucky position where the best play for the people that can help them the most is to not get directly involved and hope that Putin dies somehow.

We must’ve come out of hyperspace in some sort of asteroid field. It’s not on any of the charts. Ukraine has been totally blown away.

Of course it’s an artificial construct, but the US isn’t exactly on board with the idea that any invasion should trigger a nuclear response from the rest of the world. The whole point of NATO is to make it suicide to start anything, not to escalate after something already gets started.

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Just from reading the state mouthpiece Russia Today and reading between the lines re: these media bans, sports bans, severe sanctions, I think it’s fair to say the average Russia knows exactly what is going on. They aren’t stupid, they know how their country works better than we do.

Unfortunately, I think we are looking at a non-buffonish Trump in Putin where it would shock you how much support he has among the population. As bad as this is, I would bet anything the average Russian has the Ovenchkin “both sides” opinion on this.

Throw in the implicit threat of violence for any dissident the Putin regime considers a threat/gets too popular/too loud a voice, and yeah, regime change is a pipe dream. Maaaybe if things get really out of hand, Putin doesn’t run for re-election in 2024 citing old age and installs a handpicked successor to put a fresh new face to the world via their “managed democracy/election process.”

I think you’re right. Before Facebook was blocked over there, a couple of my Russian skydiving friends were posting about it. One of them, who was born in Ukraine (Sebastopol) and lives in Moscow now, was very upset.

I have a feeling it’s generational, too. The older folks who get their news from TV and still remember the USSR are probably much more pro-Putin, anyway.

Humans were a mistake

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That car missing a back windshield?!

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I’m going to preemptively pledge my support for Ukrainian terrorism against Russian targets if their country falls.

That’s definitely a known governmental building (looks like a fancy courthouse or ministry, marble columns, marble stairs, friezes, carved balusters). Maybe he did the interview there to distract, but it would make it a target in any event. Hell, if it were in the US I could find it in an hour using google maps. Dumb move by him and/or CNN. Well, he shouldn’t have permitted any recording except the interview.