Peace talks were predictably brief.
https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1498291090448916483?t=oos8NGSSXVIYPjD9IMbFRA&s=19
As has been discussed in this thread, Putin’s strategy is clearly to ramp up the atrocities upon civilian populations in an effort to make Zelensky cave. The question is whether he would stop before using chemical weapons, stop before using nuclear weapons, or neither. Then the question is whether Zelensky would cave.
I guess there’s also a question of what comes next, upping the type of weaponry used on Kharkiv, or doing to Kyiv what he just did to Kharkiv.
My guess is next comes a similar type of shelling on Kyiv. He probably used what he did to Kharkiv as leverage for his delegation in negotiating. “Nice capital you have there, hate to see it look like Kharkiv tomorrow.”
I don’t see Putin ending this while only getting recognition of Crimea and the lifting of sanctions. I think it’s possible he would settle for international recognition of the current battle lines in Donbas on top of Crimea. It’s possible his minimal deal is something more like drawing a line from Donetsk to Crimea and taking everything East of it, which would include Mariupol. Perhaps it’s everything East of the Dnieper, including or excluding Kyiv.
But it’s also possible he’s not rational at all and thinks he’s going to be able to get back most/all of the former USSR territory.
I do think people are overestimating how much this is driven by NATO presence on his borders. I don’t think he’s paranoid enough to think NATO countries were ever ever ever ever invading Russia. Plus he already has had four NATO countries bordering Russia, if you include Poland’s border with Kaliningrad Oblast. If he took all of Ukraine that number would go up. I think the NATO bordering Russia stuff is mostly a red herring. He doesn’t like it, but he’s not starting wars over it.
His line might be whatever he thinks he can get away with without other countries deciding to carpet bomb Moscow. How much room does he have to maneuver below that line?
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1498277303318683650?s=21
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1498277584701902849?s=21
I’m not sure Western experts/officials/former gov/former military should be calling it an embarrassing lack of discipline. I mean, we want people deserting, and it’s morally the right thing to do. Any Russian soldier who deserts upon realizing they’re going to target civilians or realizing they’re going to invade Kyiv is doing the right thing.
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My Ukrainian students insist on Kyiv (KEEV)
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I stand corrected.
It still makes conversations in the USA confusing to suddenly use an unusual pronunciation. The media (print and tv) really need to lead the way.
I don’t think that’s clear at all. Is there evidence that civilians are being specifically targeted?
edit: although looking at the recent stuff from Kharkiv it could be - I’d have thought this more likely to have the opposite effect than make Z cave.
Chemical weapons on the other hand would be a different ball game.
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Yeah, I grew up learning Kiev. But I have no issue making the change here.
I was told the reason is a matter of national identity.
Convince me I am wrong, but this whole thing seems like it’s only negative to pay attention. It’s full of rampant misinformation and we have no ability to modify events. Closely following this seems like one of those rare news events where there is essentially no upside to being highly engaged in online discussion.
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If you’re in North America, it probably is.
If your new buffer to Russia is a country the size of Mississippi, you worry a bit.
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So close! You pay attention to news stories because you think they’re important and you want to know what’s happening, not because you can influence events somehow. This war is not different.
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Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying people, especially Europeans, shouldn’t worry. I just question the value of extensive online discussion given the level of misinformation. I would be very cautious posting anything from twitter, or similar, regarding this event, for example. It seems like extensive engagement essentially guarantees you will inadvertently spread misinformation.
The butter squirts everywhere.
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It’s fun , like arguing about sports online.
This is not fucking fun. What the fuck man?
Is one lesson here that the US doesn’t need to spend as much money to stay comfortably superior to Russia militarily? Also, is it in our best interests for the war to drag on and cause Russia to waste maximum resources?