How about erasing that ambiguity by letting Ukraine join NATO?
You claim there is nothing in it for the US/NATO and i disagree. Keeping Russia from expanding is a worthwhile geopolitical goal.
That’s not the thesis though. The thesis is the West caused the issue, which it didn’t. Ukraine has been attempting to pull out of Russian orbit with NATO being a point of friction but not the only one.
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That would erase ambiguity, but it would escalate the armed conflict in Ukraine and make a long, bloody proxy war inevitable.
Or Russia could stop invading neighboring countries
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Yes, NATO isn’t the only issue. EU membership and generally joining the Western Liberal Democracy Club are the other two ambitions that Russia was dead-set against. And you’re right that who’s to blame depends on your frame of reference. Mearsheimer’s frame of reference is that great powers will try to become regional hegemons, it’s eminently rational for them to do so, and so they’ll lash out at other great powers that try to interfere in their natural sphere of influence. So you get the Monroe Doctrine and whatever you want to call what Putin is doing with Georgia and Ukraine. You can say the US is to blame for opposing a missile base in Cuba or that Russia is to blame for opposing a possible NATO naval base in Crimea, but from that frame of reference that’s like blaming the leopard for eating the antelope.
russia takes crimea and invades georgia
this is all america’s fault
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I’ve been saying this!
No indeed. The prospect of a Soviet presence in Cuba is what prompted the Bay of Pigs fiasco.
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I don’t think it would make a long, bloody proxy war inevitable. I think it would have a significant chance of leading to WW3, though.
Trying to welcome non-whites into full citizenship in the US makes conflict more likely, not less. So we shouldn’t do that!
This take strikes me as sophisticated sophistry. NATO isn’t in the cards for Ukrainian atm. The issue is whether Russia gets to run Ukraine as a puppet state to satisfy the aims of its dictator.
Should we go to war to defend the right of Ukraine not to be a puppet state? Probably not. But Russia has no legitimate claim to Ukraine other than the fake nationalist claptrap that substitutes for Russian history.
I don’t know how all this will shake out, but it will not be to the long term benefit of Russia. Claims of encirclement have always been the pretext for bad guys in European wars.
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Haven’t read this yet, but I trust it a lot more than a dicy lecture from a foreign policy hack.
Edit: read it and it provides essential context for the discussion.
Jesus Christ. The west created this? Fuck off, Putin is an absolute thug who is going to invade because he’s a POS thug who needs to distract from his domestic weakness.
What the fuck is it with contrarian WELL AKSHUALLY types and going to bat for Putin?
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What do you think the US should do in response to the threat you’ve described?
Germany is only interested in the pipeline from Russia so they’re probably out, just UK and US any actual interest in defending ukraine?
if the secondary point was to split US/europe this is a hell of a way to do it probably gonna work
Putin’s been so blatant with wanting to get the USSR back I shouldn’t have been surprised there’s people who don’t see it even on this board
whether he actually invades or not though, still tbd probably purely on if he thinks he can get away with it
Sure, but NATO expansion is dead because of the Russian’s response to it, culminating in the Crimean invasion. They made it clear that they’d do whatever it takes to keep Ukraine from falling into the Western sphere of influence. And yes, that is the issue: is Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of influence or in the Western sphere. So we agree on that at least.
OK, maybe. But should we fight a war to keep Russia from imposing their nationalist claptrap? Again, we seem to agree no. Should we fight a proxy war? I don’t see why. What’s the compelling US interest in keeping Ukraine out of the clutches of the dastardly Putin?
The US should fuck with Putin in Ukraine as punishment for meddling in our elections.
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I think we should support Ukraine as a matter of US/Western values of self determination and discouraging unwilling client states. Give them plenty of arms. I think Putin made a mistake in Donbas and Crimea by removing many Russian voices from Ukraine politics. I suspect that an acceptable result would be for Ukraine to part with areas dominated by Russian populations so it can focus on becoming a modern state. Would be nice if some kind of referendum could be held.
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That doesn’t serve American interests though, as far as I can see. Arming the Ukrainians to the teeth only commits Russia to supporting the Russian nationalists in Ukraine with similar arms, and then the Russians might stage raids across the border in support of these nationalists. Why does a bloody balkanization of Ukraine help America, or, for that matter, Ukraine?
Put another way, do you agree with Mearsheimer that Russia would rather wreck Ukraine as a functioning state than allow it to fall into the Western orbit? And, if so, do you think that Russia has that capability? I think the answer to both is clearly yes.
I think there’s plenty of middle ground between Russian client states and “Western orbit.” Afaik, Ukraine isn’t up for EU membership. Russia has never had anything to offer its client states beyond subjugation, the mandate of the divinely inspired czar/Stalin, and supporting God’s favored Slavic race against the Ottomans and maybe the Huns. Russia is still playing 19th century politics, to its own detriment.