what does Biden mean by act decisively?
We don’t have to guess at that, is there any sign the massed troops are based in Belarus?
Are there any dams in Ukraine? That might be enough to saturate the land if we bombed them.
2 dams east of Kharkov, not ideally placed if the Russians go for Kyiv
I just checked, they have around 100 armed Soviet era warplanes.
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There are 30,000 troops taking part in maneuvers right now.
Guess its back to the drawing bored
Could they seed the clouds?
What happens if the US gives Ukraine air support but refuses to send in troops on the ground?
NATO ends up in a war against Russia
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probably a couple of nukes pop off, though we’re fading an chance that Putin hasn’t been able to properly maintain his stockpile and they’re nonfunctional
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Nuclear war depends on the US being willing to take the L when the Russians shoot a few down. The 3 historic instances I can think of are Gary Powers, Vietnam (SAMs manned by the Soviets) and Malaysia Air.
Zero clue, but I’m sure they could procure more. I could see us providing unlimited “non-combat” support for stuff like that.
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How many do you think they’d need?
Zero clue. It was a half-baked idea I threw at the wall. Seems like it could be worth a try in some strategic areas, though, and as a way to get meaningful help from allies who don’t want to get involved in a shooting war with Russia.
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Would we say sentiment is that war is more or less likely since Friday afternoon?
I have a feeling that anything less than demonstrating a willingness to get involved military on some level amounts to deeply concerned scolding in line with the Susan Collins Graduate School of Politics and Diplomacy.
Can we model Putin’s behavior as that of a bully who will do anything he thinks he can get away with? Does that mean he needs the equivalent of a punch in the nose and he will back down? Or is he committed to his course of action and will double down if pushed back at?
I don’t crave war, but I think whatever the best strategy is will involve being willing to risk at least a small chance of war. No matter what he actually wants, I think Putin’s strategy relies on a Western weak-tight response of wanting to avoid war at all costs.
I assume Putin is too well-protected for it to be possible, but I feel like state-sanctioned assassination should at least be on the table.
there would almost certainly be forces in the way for those 60 miles, and getting into kiev, they would battle for each street. urban warfare is horrible if there’s resistance
Every concrete action Putin has taken has been to increase the pressure. Has he left himself any face-saving way to back down? A poker analogy is tempting but I don’t remember how to play poker.
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The 10 day forecast looks pretty warm in Kyiv, in the 40s all week and flirting with 50 degrees. Rain in the forecast as well. Climate change may thwart Russia’s plans?
One projection I heard is that civilian deaths would be in the 10s of thousands if Putin goes all the way. That’s going to piss people off.
Probably the same thing that happened last time they tried this in Afghanistan.