when germany invaded poland, it had 35m people. are you saying that wasn’t yet ww2? you sir are technically correct. the best kind of correct.
I think this live from RT in the upper left might be fake. I can’t find any other live cams with Independence Square lit up like it was last night.
Fake live cams is definitely a thing now.
Russia has nukes so you can’t really shoot down their planes and hope for the best.
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I don’t think that’s a guarantee. I’m not even sure it’s a likelihood, but it’s definitely a strong possibility.
The invasion of Poland triggered immediate declarations of war from France and Great Britain. Nothing like this has happened yet.
That cuts both ways. It’s very possible that Putin doesn’t want to test NATO.
There are other plausible scenarios where this leads to escalation, like a downed NATO pilot getting captured or Russian jets in the fog of war from a dogfight getting out of Ukrainian airspace.
hopefully simultaneously with nofly zone, we cyber and disable to their nuclear systems, infrastructure, and bomb any leftover grads next to ukraine, and i assume all known silos/airfields with bombers
Disgruntled Putin nursing his grievances over Russian history and his current failures in Ukraine is not the guy I want to be bluffing. He might tilt raise with 9 high.
ugh, I feel like ‘putin can’t want that smoke’ and ‘putin ghana putin’ are both very reasonable outcomes.
This would be an act of nuclear war and would completely fail anyway from my basic understanding.
They don’t want to use nukes, but they might use nukes if provoked. The probability of them doing that doesn’t need to be very high for it to impact your analysis of the correct strategy.
A dozen countries have already crossed Putin’s supposed red line by sending weapons into Ukraine. But the no-fly zone is the real red line I guess.
Right, absolutely. I should be clear that I don’t think it’s likely that NATO will take this step, but I do think it’s notable that a member of Ukraine’s parliament is hearing that, and that it would be a huge development if it happens.
Perhaps it’s on the table, perhaps it’s misinformation, perhaps NATO said that they will do it if XYZ happens, and a rumor started.
0.001% is more than enough to make it a very unfavorable calculation.
There’s still the chance of a mutiny or Jamie Lannister scenario “if Putin is like fuck it first strike tonight”
Has to be. Those other people in the chain of command must have families that will die in the exchange.
I think they would use nukes if invaded. But using nukes because their invasion into Ukraine is thwarted seems pretty insane. I guess the hope is if Putin tried that the generals or someone would stop him.
Of course really none of us have any idea what is going on in his head. But it seems like letting him win this will only introduce more future risk. The time to push for his own country to oust him would seem to be ripe.
Russia isn’t North Korea with a cult of personality dynasty and a brainwashed populace. They’ve ousted leaders plenty of times in the past.
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It’s not. Ukraine is putting out lots of propaganda at the moment. They have a vested interest in disinformation right now. Let’s keep being skeptical of far-fetched rumors.
Also this no fly zone thing could be a telephone game situation. Like it’s plausible that NATO is going to enforce a No Fly Zone over the extreme western portions of Ukraine where there are refugees massed waiting to cross the border, and perhaps exploit this to get supplies to the Ukrainian forces. Then that rumor starts working from Zelensky on down and by the time it gets to parliament, it’s a no fly zone over Kyiv.
Yeah this for sure.