The calculus is a bit different with Finland. Finland is quite awful for Russia terrain wise to push into.
Russia would need to spend a few weeks amassing troops and tanks at St Petersburg. It would give the west enough time to arm them with anti-tank / artillery / anti aircraft.
I would employ the Ukraine strategy where we arm the shit out of them and let Putin get bogged down / bankrupted pushing into Finland.
Like 80 new posts and 70 of them are Keeed related. Let me join again with those requesting that the @moderators split this thread. One for news, updates, and discussions of the war itself and one for Keeed to share his “expertise” in geopolitical strategy.
Done. Please find the Geopolitical Strategy thread.
https://twitter.com/Serhii6_6/status/1502389187055603720?s=20&t=KV-XcRpD1LgFA7JFSUX83g
The best reply I found
Would everyone please move the realism discussion here: Geopolitical Strategery - #47 by suzzer99.
I think most people reading this thread would greatly appreciate it.
Thread
I don’t know about all these Intel reports talking about what’s going on in the Russian government. I’m not sure why Estonia would have the inside track, but fingers crossed.
Big fan of moving Keed and any discussion of that John Shoeshiner guy nobody gives a fuck about to a different thread if a different galaxy entirely is not possible.
It’s been moved. Global politics.
https://twitter.com/holger_r/status/1502269891189092358
On the one hand, yeah this whole thread feels really optimistic. But on the other hand the optimists have been mostly right so far, while the pessimists have been mostly wrong.
It’s hardly unprecedented to overhype your capabilities and get high on your own supply about how easy the war is going to be.
Yea. The guys a journalist so I didn’t dismiss the “I’ve heard from an analyst” out of hand but that tweet is the piece of information that made me doubt it the most. The rest of the thread seems possible based on what everyone knows, but even that stuff it’s possible to be wrong.
I’d trust Estonians over just about anyone else to analyze Russia. Same with the Finns, Latvians, and Lithuanians. Certainly more than generalists or geopolitical “experts” in DC. (Though there are plenty of good US experts with on the gound experience in Russia/Eastern Europe).
I’ll get optimistic when the Ukrainians stop the southward push west of Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1502451539591454723?s=20&t=rd4LaU40EJBGaooUu4M0ew
One of the best discussion of Russia/autocracy I’ve seen. Good 20 minute video of the interview (will be a podcast soon if you need a NYer sub to view).
The problem with Russia’s military is that it’s run by a bunch of kleptocrats who’ve been stealing everything that isn’t nailed down. And like Joe Pesci in Casino, you have to understand that the middle-management guys under you are also going to steal whatever they can. So you get this big army full of impressive-looking vehicles that can’t actually go anywhere because someone siphoned off the funds for maintenance and new tires. It’s the reason the mob casinos were badly mismanaged: you can’t but a bunch of violent crooks in charge of a bureaucracy and expect it’s going run effectively.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502433817465864198
https://twitter.com/prayer4ukraine/status/1502438180401917953
IG ban hitting hard
https://twitter.com/EE_Knight/status/1502452099975725058
Best reply.
The professor in the David Remnick interview discusses this quite a bit and how the current system in Russia operates.