LOL
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Russia’s actions clearly indicate that they think they’re entitled to Kyiv, and they’ve stated the intention to take the entire southern coast up to and including Transnistria. If you think my statement is falsified because of the possibility that Russia decides to leave alone a fragment that might still end up being called “Ukraine” around Lviv, lol, ok.
I mean, geez Keeed, that Russia can annex the entirety of Ukraine, and no one should do anything about it, except the Ukrainians, maybe, if they want to, is literally your position, and you’re having me dig up quotes?
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Not lifting a finger to prevent this is of the utmost importance
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/1578188802836791296?t=MtGivGA1JCsWipQLQOyfNw&s=19
Biden also challenged Russian nuclear doctrine, warning that the use of a lower-yield tactical weapon could quickly spiral out of control into global destruction.
“I don’t there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden said.
It’s problem.
Speaking to Democratic donors, Biden said he was still “trying to figure” out Putin’s “off-ramp” in Ukraine.
“Where does he find a way out?” Biden asked. “Where does he find himself in a position that he does not not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?”
It’s problem but it’s Putin’s problem.
The above end game put forth as reasonably probable among many is Putin withdrawing the Russian army to defend him against a looming coup seems plausible.
Lol, that army is probably most likely to attempt the coup themselves at this point
Perhaps. I think that is on the table. But Putin may try it if it looks like Wagner may be getting some big ideas.
Kind of. But Putin’s problem can very quickly turn into everyone’s problem, as Biden properly notes:
I have to say Im personally pretty terrified about where it looks like we are headed. Seems like we are going to be reliant on Putin just not being enough of a sociopath to end humanity after his fate has been sealed or losing power to more rational actors to avoid nuclear war. Feels like a very uncomfortable bet.
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Maybe his face-saving exit scenario is being forced to back down by an overwhelmingly superior force that even the most nationalistic Russian will admit is impossible to defeat.
If Putin is told that a limited war will be tolerated, but even a low-yield tactical nuke will lead to nuclear annihilation of Russia where his death is guaranteed, does he back down?
Only one way to find out!
If you can’t predict whether that would make him back down from threats to use nukes, then you can’t predict if losing makes him more likely to use nukes in the first place.
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there’s no off-ramp. Not for putin, at least. Biden is signalling to would-be coupsters inside russia. That’s the off-ramp.
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Appeasement as a strategy to avoid greater conflict with a dictator has pretty much always failed and led to worse outcomes. See Chamberlain, Neville.
Appeasement of somebody who uses the threat of nukes to hostilely conquer territory is a terrible precedent, and also creates a pretty good incentive for other dictators to acquire nukes to do exactly the same thing!
If you want to consider the second order problem you have to do a lot more work. And in the end you probably end up only slightly modifying the original conclusion to something like it’s mostly Putin’s problem. He should get on that.
In other words, Putins off ramp is to fall out a window. Could happen, Russia has unbelievably dangerous windows for some reason.
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Also need to factor in the likelihood of future nuke use/threats if he gets what he wants here.
here’s what i said about off-ramps and whether putin can accept that he has to take them.
in March Ukraine, Russia, and the West - #6916 by VoteForSocialists
but i don’t see any outs for putin right now, barring an offramp of his own choosing. he will have to mobilize and he is prepared to use his nuclear threats. he has said that for years. he doesn’t err on the conservative side. his miscalculations are almost always catastrophic.
and April (patting myself on the back for calling out izyum and kherson)
and May
i still think that a palace coup is very unlikely, a lot of people would have to make a pact ahead of time, and quickly create an offramp to negotiate with ukraine and the west. a lone kingslayer would be in immediate danger from knives out.
regional mutiny is possible, and it would be interesting to see if aany police or rosgvardia join the protesters, but it’s a long shot that whole detachments do this, and they would face state forces brought from other regions. right now it looks like putin would have enough power to survive that, but you never know in russia. corruption is a double edged sword. remote chance of civil conflict driving putin into an offramp. more likely kadyrov putting down dissenters in neighboring republics, and zolotov doing the same elsewhere.
there is a gigantic internal police force, also a big part of state budget, and even the war hasn’t reduced the money spent on them. sanctions will eventually whittle that down, but not quickly, it’s a multiyear process at this rate. alternatively putin could make another blunder and start mobilizing his police force for the war. that would embolden and accelerate internal protests.