Ukraine Invasion 2: We're the baddies now

russia began the war by massing tanks, and having huge armored columns attack. They used this tactic as late as Avdiivka.

Around Kyiv, at the start of the war, Ukraine would take out the front and rear vehicle of a column, and then the rest of the column was picked off. This was usually done with massed artillery or Javelins/NLAWs. Later on drones started to be used for this. russia also struggled with modern tank tactics. They were sending solo tanks into cities, without an infantry escort, where they would get picked off by ATGMs.

This was easier to accomplish because roads into Kyiv from Belarus are limited, due to rivers and bridges.


For places like Avdiivka, fortifications would funnel the mechanized columns into kill zones. This made it easier for recon drones to spot them, and then artillery would strike them. Ukraine claims 364 tanks and 748 armored fighting vehicles were lost there.

Kofman described this war as “the last war of the Soviet Union” because after russia lost too many modern tanks, they refurbished as much as they could from USSR stockpiles, and have lost those as well.

Ukraine also had 3 major defensive positions in Avdiivka which allowed them to contest a massive attacks with a relatively small force. These are the closest to what one normally thinks when the word “fortifications” gets used. The biggest fortification was a Coke plant, which had underground shelters and was made of thick concrete, which helped protect against glide bombs, artillery and drones.

The fall of this fortified area is largely why we are seeing russia advancing into Pokrovsk. If Ukraine has more fortified positions behind Avdiivka, they would probably be losing less territory and also inflicting more casualties.


The current method of russian advances that we’re seeing is a recent adaption. Artillery played a huge role at the start of the war, and there was a major focus on getting Ukraine enough shells to repel russia’s massing tactics. russia responded to the shortage of shells, increased recon drones, and struggling to advance with mechanized units, by sending infantry in smaller groups, making it inefficient to use an expensive 155mm shell to kill them. Ukraine adapted to this by scaling up drone manufacturing, dropping mines using drones, and putting obstacles to funnel the russians into chokepoints for drones to pick off more easily.

russia is now responding by sending russian infantry in even smaller groups, usually not engaging even when they do see Ukrainian infantry, and instead focusing on trying to get as far as possible, grouping up, and then contesting that area. These fortifications seem like an adaptation to that: everything is cleared so infantry has to walk with absolutely no cover, they then have to pass barbed wire and a minefield. Even if they are able to take control of the area where these fortifications are, any logistics are forced through chokepoints which Ukraine can strike with drones even after they are pushed back.


Here’s a close up image of one of the lines, it looks like there’s several layers of this:

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Thanks. This is interesting.

I think it’s been noted before that massed tanks in eastern Europe/Russia in winter was a bad idea in WW2 and a bad idea in Feb 22.

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Really good video which explains the different tactics russia has used throughout the war:

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Overall, the BBC has confirmed the names of almost 160,000 people killed fighting on Russia’s side in Ukraine.

[…]

The real death toll is believed to be much higher, and military experts we have consulted believe our analysis of cemeteries, war memorials and obituaries might represent 45-65% of the total.

That would put the number of Russian deaths at between 243,000 and 352,000.

Ukraine claims that for two months now they have inflicted over 30k casualties, which would mean that russia is not recruiting more than they are losing. It seems pretty likely too.

This is not the focus of the article, but just a truly absurd story:

Mukashev was an activist who had never supported Putin’s policies.

Over the years, he had taken part in demonstrations against police violence and torture, and joined rallies for LGBT rights and the release of Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin’s main opponent who died in prison in 2024.

He had repeatedly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on social media from 2022. Then, in early 2024, Mukashev was detained near his home in Moscow and charged with large-scale drug dealing.

While his case was being tried he was offered a contract with the defence ministry, according to his friends and family.

They saw the heavy charges levelled against him as a typical ploy to get people to sign up. A 2024 law allows the accused a way out of a criminal conviction if they join up - an attractive option in a country with an acquittal rate of less than 1%.

Mukashev refused the offer, and the court sentenced him to 10 years in a high-security penal colony.

In prison in November 2024, he changed his mind. Friends said he was encouraged by Trump’s promises to end the war quickly and decided he needed to sign up as soon as possible to secure his release before a peace deal was reached.

“He saw this as a chance to be released instead of being imprisoned for 10 years of strict regime,” reads a statement from his support group.

There was no explanation of how he reconciled taking part in the war with his reluctance to kill.

On June 11 2025, Mukashev died fighting as part of an assault squad in the Kharkiv region of north-eastern Ukraine.




I doubt this amounts to much, but the absurdity is something else. after Zelenskyy met with Trump, Putin claimed that Ukraine launched drones to try to kill him at one of his palaces. Ukraine claimed they did not do that and have asked for proof.

Kremlin’s spokesperson Peskov says there will be no evidence of attack on Putin’s residence, as there is no need in evidence

russian MOD claims that they have no evidence of the attack.

Modi and the president of Pakistan have still condemned the “strikes”.

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The story of the attack on Putin’s residence is so absurd only Trump and the rest of Putins buddies are repeating it. Why attack it when you know he is rarely there to begin with and he has plenty of time to enter a secure part of the building before the drones hit.

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Totally real footage of the attack:

https://x.com/DramaAlert/status/2006409029212324128


Doesn’t matter, but still interesting to see:



This is a really, really good article recapping this year of Trump admin vs Ukraine:


Here are the parts pertaining to Hegseth, although the entire article is worth the read:

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https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2007053400261681610?s=20

as well as on the diplomatic track of negotiations, and the Office of the President will primarily serve the fulfillment of these tasks of our state. Kyrylo has specialized experience in these areas and sufficient strength to deliver results. I also instructed the new Head of the Office of the President, in cooperation with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and other relevant leaders and institutions, to update and submit for approval the strategic foundations of our state’s defense and development, as well as the subsequent steps.

This story has been happening for the past few weeks, and has somehow morphed from a kind of funny event to suddenly potentially serious:

Early December USA seizes a Venezuelan tanker.

Around December 20 the Coast Guard attempts to seize another but it runs. Coast Guard follows, chasing it for over a week while waiting for help with what they are assuming will be a dangerous boarding.

Dec 31 The tanker paints a russian flag on the side of the ship and russia asks trump to let them have this one.

Early Jan US sends helicopters to UK that can board a tanker

Several more days pass, and it’s reported that the boarding is going to happen soon.

And now this:

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-sends-submarine-to-escort-tanker-the-u-s-tried-to-seize-off-venezuela-4bd78dc7

Russia Sends Submarine to Escort Tanker the U.S. Tried to Seize off Venezuela

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US backup seems thin on the ground. Guess you busy with US invasions :slight_smile: Only likely if there’s a peace deal - less chance than the US invading Greenland

The UK and France have signed a declaration of intent on deploying troops in Ukraine if a peace deal is made with Russia, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has announced.

After talks with Ukraine’s allies in Paris, he said the UK and France would “establish military hubs across Ukraine” to deter future invasion, while French President Emmanuel Macron later said thousands of troops may be deployed.

Allies also largely agreed robust security guarantees for Ukraine and proposed that the US would take the lead in monitoring a truce. But the key issue of territory is still being discussed.

Russia has repeatedly warned that any foreign troops in Ukraine would be a “legitimate target”.

Moscow has not yet commented on the announcements made in the French capital.

Can anyone else see this “submarine?” Sounds like my Canadian girlfriend…

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Is the submarine in the room with you right now?

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lol it was also “and other naval assets” which I imagine wouldn’t have been easy to fake. It sounds like it was boarded before they were able to meet up though… or they never got sent, and the news was using bad sources.

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2008911264588706299

This surprises me as the legality of this questionable at best.



Even if this is the end of free navigation, it’s satisfying to finally see this with russia on the receiving end:

https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/2008893181606457422

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Legality LOL

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On the receiving end LOL

Have we ever been closer to the brink of WW3?

https://x.com/visionergeo/status/2008941878570348570?s=20

“said Alexey Zhuravlyov, a deputy of the Russian State Duma.”

Yawn

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Get some sleep.

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He’s right. This is less significant than whatever senator/douche Mark Wayne what’s his name was shooting his mouth off about yesterday.

This kind of thing seemed alarming to me at the start of the Ukraine war but now it’s just noise.

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TBF, the Russia right does seem to be having a bit of a meltdown, but any significant action risks giving up the best card Puntin has, Trump’s complicity. Putin is deluded, but he’s not insane.

https://x.com/Tendar/status/2008968503580106955?s=20