Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

May 1 update.

don’t forget trmp’s brilliant idea involving painting f16’s like chinese fighters

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Seems worth a read:

The heights of surface waves generated by deep underwater explosions are greater because more energy is delivered to the water. During the Cold War, underwater explosions were thought to operate under the same principles as tsunamis, potentially increasing dramatically in height as they move over shallow water, and flooding the land beyond the shoreline.[7] Later research and analysis suggested that water waves generated by explosions were different from those generated by tsunamis and landslides. Méhauté et al. conclude in their 1996 overview Water Waves Generated by Underwater Explosion that the surface waves from even a very large offshore undersea explosion would expend most of their energy on the continental shelf, resulting in coastal flooding no worse than that from a bad storm.[2]

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Yeah, they have ample capabilities to make the British Isles uninhabitable for the foreseeable future assuming even 1% of their weapons can both fire and detonate in the general vicinity of their target, but not with a single detonation.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1520980682390085639

“We kept giving Ukraine the opportunity to withdraw its troops” - from where? Kyiv?

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1520978324402708480

Hmm.

The only thing I can find suggested the Japan Tsunami was 3 petajoules of energy. Which doesn’t seem that much. That’s 700 ish kilotons of explosive. Which would suggest hydrogen bombs have more than enough raw energy.

On the other hand. I think the type of energy is pretty crucial. Turning a bunch of water into 100,000 degree steam is different to accelerating a billion tonnes of water up to 5km an hour.

For me its actually similar to watching Tennis. Even if a player I like is playing I wouldnt rarely turn on the TV before the deciding set is played anymore. I just cant stomach that back and forth before its decided. Since there are not many detailed reports about anything that happens out there it appears to be a stalemate and I fully expect to wake up one day and read that the Russian forces broke through and the Ukrainian front is collapsing. So for me I would say its the fear of bad news. I want to hope for Ukraine but all these little skirmishes do nothing for me as long as they arent part of a bigger play. Even so Russia seems largely inept I still fear they have bigger reserves. Stable front lines arent good news. The only good outcome for me is if Russia is forced out of the Ukraine. And it doesnt look like this is happening soon. So I follow more the quibble of Western politicians who are afraid of taking decisive action and the twitter idiots who cry “Scholz should only focus on his own people so fuck any embargos on gas and oil”… I am not sure where that will all end and that is the worrying part. The world is fucked.
I could read endlessly about battle reports on wikipedia but there isnt much to read up on this war. We know they drove Russian forces away from Kiew but we dont know much of the composition of troops, the leaders and what did actually happen. Any large blunders aside from the logistical problems that allowed Ukraine to repell that assault? There is a youtube series on Stalingrad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAfo5mse-ag&list=PLNSNgGzaledi9jQeOzCUtBP2pxYdCYiXX) that goes very much in detail where all the regiments and divisions are fighting etc… The fog of war is basically what prevents me from following more closely.

https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1521088587579949056?s=21&t=TVh0iJbzwj0Dmv2Y6XTGBQ

EDIT: If true, would put Ukraine 15 miles away from the main road from Belgorod to Izium. There are alternative routes available, but they would be longer.

“No idea, what is a Zerg rush?”

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1520909866717564933

Sounds like Arestovych doesn’t know what a zerg rush is either.

No he doesn’t. Not really.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1521117356692586497

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He is clearly describing a marine/SCV all-in

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Very good text about the history of Ukraine and connections to the invasion by Timothy Snyder:

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Umm, Noam?

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Like everyone else Snyder has a substack: https://snyder.substack.com/
Absolutely worth reading.

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Very good article. I especially liked these:

The Ukrainian transliteration of “Valdemar” is “Volodymyr,” the name of Ukraine’s President. In Ukraine, power is transferred through democratic elections: when Volodymyr Zelensky won the 2019 Presidential election, the sitting President accepted defeat. The Russian transliteration of the same name is “Vladimir.” Russia is brittle: it has no succession principle, and it’s unclear what will happen when Vladimir Putin dies or is forced from power. The pressure of mortality confirms the imperial thinking. An aging tyrant, obsessed by his legacy, seizes upon a lofty illusion that seems to confer immortality: the “unity” of Russia and Ukraine.

The history of the colonization of Ukraine, like the history of troubling and divisive subjects in general, can help us get free of myths. The past delivers to Putin several strands of colonial rhetoric, which he has combined and intensified. It also leaves us vulnerable to a language of exploitation: whenever we speak of “the Ukraine” instead of “Ukraine,” or pronounce the capital city in the Russian style, or act as if Americans can tell Ukrainians when and how to make peace, we are continuing imperial rhetoric by partaking in it.

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Long but good thread on the social and ethnic makeup of Russian fores and Russia as a white supremacist nation.

Https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1521147854949036032?t=nfKLH6l4de6BZwm-_XnfTg&s=19

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no wai. ussr rid the world of racism, until usa made it great agin in ukraine and nato.