Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

I am still not sure. Maybe bite divers? Maybe just signal if they see divers?

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1519474358766419968

They could ram them and knock them unconscious thus killing them pretty quickly

Dolphins are wonderful creatures, I refuse to believe that they would ever work for Putin. FAKE NEWS!

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5450868

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The US Navy has used dolphins to find sea mines.

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A few good reasons this may not happen, or may not be effective if it does:

  1. Mobilization (conscription of people and industry) is not going to be popular. It will degrade Putin’s standing and open up risks with the generals.
  2. Conscripted troops will take a long time to train, and even then be subpar.
  3. Russia’s main problem is heavy weapons that it can’t easily repair or replace, not lack of troops.
  4. Escalation could finally shut off all European oil and gas buying, which would plunge Russia into economic disaster.

Mobilization isn’t going to turn the tide for a long time, if ever. But it will have instant negative repercussions domestically. It seems to be basically nukes or they lose. And even with nukes they lose, they just take everyone else down with them.

And even if Putin does order nukes, there’s always hope the generals won’t pull the trigger. As long as NATO doesn’t attack directly, that chance stays much higher.

Also this:

https://twitter.com/RichardGold68/status/1519322070932504576

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I don’t think we’re back to conventional wisdom in the first place because of what you said - that Russia has problems that simply throwing more untrained, low-morale, trash soldiers at the front isn’t going to fix. It’s pretty obvious that NATO and NATO-aligned nations now see an opportunity to inflict heavy damage on Russia’s military capabilities, and it seems like that would continue to be true under full mobilization. Conventional wisdom originally was that the Russians were going to be occupying Kyiv before anybody had time to tie their shoes.

I also think that full mobilization probably won’t happen, but I think the change in tone on Russian media etc indicates that it is an option under consideration.

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Idk but would expect there to be large numbers of people who had previously served and unless something unlikely happens, they have as much time as Putin wants to put into this.

  • Russia’s main problem is heavy weapons that it can’t easily repair or replace, not lack of troops.

The experts have been saying Russia’s problem is the reverse of this.

Conscripts only serve for a year and they’re not supposed to see combat. Bring back old conscripts isn’t going to be like bringing back battle-seasoned professional troops.

I’ve read dozens of experts that say Russia’s problem is lack of heavy weapons and the fact that they can’t replace most of what they’re losing right now. Whereas Ukraine has an endless supply of a lot of stuff.

I haven’t read one expert that said Russia’s problem is lack of manpower. At least not the kind of manpower that comes from conscripts.

when is nato going to stop making russia commit war crimes?

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3469695-us-cites-credible-reports-that-russia-executed-ukrainians-trying-to-surrender-in-donetsk/

Part of this depends on the timeframe being considered. Like if we’re just talking about the next few weeks, when the Donbas battle is likely to be decided, then Russia has all the equipment it needs. They’ve lost a lot and they won’t easily be able to replace it but they started with an enormous advantage and still have the bulk of that. What they won’t have soon is enough men to achieve their apparent objective of establishing a continuous land bridge to Transnistria. In this timeframe, the Ukrainians have a manpower edge but it’s a race to get them the equipment they need to keep the Russians from grabbing significant territory.

Medium term, and that could be years, a general mobilization would eventually get Russia a much bigger force. Putin could choose to preserve his equipment in the meantime by cooling it for a while. No way Ukraine can be equipped to equalize unless NATO totally drops the gloves. In this timeframe Russia probably eventually grinds out a “victory”. The question is, does Putin think it’s worth it and is he that patient.

Long term, and hell who knows, that could be decades, Russia eventually loses and goes home. No number of men, no amount of equipment, not their entire national wealth would be enough to change that outcome.

I should have prefaced this by acknowledging I don’t have any expertise other than having been around through all the pointless stupid wars since Vietnam.

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Michael Kofman has said a few times that Russia’s main problem is lack of manpower, not weapons. He think manpower is a huge problem and most btg’s lack sufficient infantry. Like 80 effective ground troops per btg.

Discusses in this podcast.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1519339720014282756?t=qFACFsCRsSOLGTJTixgJxA&s=19

He also thinks general mobilization would be unpopular and put Putin in conflict with the military, where he can no longer quit and declare victory. Basically, Putin loses control if there’s a mobilization.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1519560504712253440?t=jwjjSNjPNWO-V2Qv3yUqOw&s=19

About 15 tweets in thread.

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Conscripts who had 1-2 years training years ago are definitely combat ready. The entire Dutch army was based on this till the 90’s and so is Israel. Holland surprised full professional armies in exercises many times. It is not hard to fire a gun, drive a tank, shoot artillery. Morale and being around combat experienced people is what makes a big difference. That is one of the reasons Ukraine is doing well. They have a lot of troops that got their experience in the east over the last years.

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You know all those videos of 3 guys with a missile launcher blasting a Russian tank? Russian infantry are supposed to keep them from doing that. They aren’t, because there aren’t enough of them. Russia may be developing a shortage of equipment now, but it’s because they’ve lost thousands of vehicles to ambushes like that.

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oh look only two months into special operation not going well, the media is finally catching on that the russian generals can’t believe what fell.

https://archive.ph/PAXIQ

Onion

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https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1519444905835339777?s=20&t=kGmnoJdq4VBkK8Rh43GPAw

Hungary undermining NATO & EU

Shocker