Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Post is about how it resonates in Ukraine

I’m sure it is resonating elsewhere also, although it was not the point of that post.

Nevertheless, the point about the whiteness remains true.

If it were some immigrant woman and her kid who happened to be living there, they would give a lot fewer fucks. There have been plenty of reports of the racism faced by foreigners from Ukrainians as they were trying to evacuate.

Their being white is essential to the power with which it resonates in both Ukraine and in most of the West.

If Putin was holding back anything on account of the election, he’ll let it rip now.

Basically yeah. No one likes Ortega anymore unless they directly benefit from his rule.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1518345736672497664

putin going to ceusescu?

Is there a hazing ritual when new countries join NATO?

Russia’s problem is that they can’t hold all that stuff. Just look at a map and imagine a big Ukrainian army east of the Dnieper. How do you simultaneously defend Mariupol and Melitopol and Kherson and Donetsk with fewer men than the Ukrainians have? Plus deploy enough troops to defend the supply lines against a population that hates you? Hopeless. And it looks like the Russians are planning on setting up some sham Kherson puppet state, which will make it politically impossible for them to withdraw before they’re destroyed.

The initial attack on Kyiv had a plausible strategic theory behind it, and pivoting to Donbas once it became clear they had lost could be sold to Putin as refocusing on the core objectives. But the current strategy seems pretty hopeless now that it’s clear that the ambitious version (pushing to Dnipro) is not going to happen. And it looks like the political will is not there to reposition to a more plausible set of goals.

It seems pretty reasonable to expect that after Russia’s new offensive peters out, their defensive positions will just get picked apart until they collapse. Ukraine may not have the firepower to roll a bunch of tanks right through Russian lines, but they don’t really need to.

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lol at the captions. he didn’t say “yiddish”, he started saying a slur.

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Lots of weird fires in Russia lol

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1518380250543136774?s=21&t=Gcft3A6FL6ZWTJClr9YBBw

yes it’s apparently true, dvornikov is shelling it harder than before and trying to take it with infantry. publicly they “switched” away from storm tactics, but siege tactics would require even more troops committed for longer. saying one thing and doing something else is definitely in putin’s range.

there’s a video of former azovstal manager telling DNR commanders what the plant’s underground tunnels are like. seemed relatively vacuous of information like where azov and civilians are, but he’s being portrayed as a collaborator. too bad. simple sabotage is much better.

speaking of random fires around russia. it certainly looks like sabotage, most of those bases have definite connections to actual war, but in general accidents involving building fires and even deaths are some of the highest per capita among countries in the world. corruption eventually eats everything, even basic safety nets like building codes, maintenance, and first response.

Seems like fair game if she’s showing up in public to support her boyfriend’s war.

https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1518398412009443328?t=vPWTBc8UuSpOwA5WGhxGbA&s=19

If it were possible, I’d be fine with kidnapping her and dropping her off in the streets of Kyiv and seeing what happens.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1518432425185062912

I don’t know much about oil depots - but this seems like either two different areas spontaneously combusted, or the work of sabotage or missiles. Like is there any way the first fire could have cause the second explosion?

I pretty much only use Wechat to communicate with family in China, so I don’t have a ton of contacts but I went digging in my feed today and small sample size (not family thank God) but there’s tons of fawning over Putin. Chinese soccer Moms posting about how amazing he is.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1518412204382502915?t=jhdd6-CgJJrv5aU4Rzd1lg&s=19
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1518413586925854725?t=QDkYzKqAqaAnSRCMeFmwPw&s=19

I wonder if this is some kind of gamesmanship going on. Like they deliberately want to leak that Putin may have a tantrum if his girlfriend is sanctioned because they know it will bug him, or make him look weak or something. Or it could just be what it looks like.

https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1518440352650301446

Who knows but I think at every step there’s been signaling before doing x to gage what the likely reaction will be. But it could be it just looks that way and it’s all ad hoc shit.

Without knowing anything about oil facilities I’d have to say yes but since there’s a high intensity war on I’d rank accident as a likely cause of these fires behind Ukrainian attack, sabotage, and Russian false flag.