Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517282017284702208

It’s not really observing physical issues that bothers me. I’m also far from convinced, but those certainly could be Parkinson’s symptoms. It’s when people make a wild ass leap from there to “increased paranoia and hallucinations/delusions. He’s deteriorating rapidly due to stress.” that I get annoyed because it’s stupid. Just like when people were earnestly speculating about Trump having dementia when he almost certainly does not.

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https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1517284546844135425

This probably explains Scholz‘s inaction

Cliffs: Germany is hyper-turbo-fucked without Russian gas. Thanks, Merkel.

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These analyses of people’s movement etc in videos need to come with about 100 metric tons of skepticism. Before this it was Trump’s posture while standing that meant his brain was about to implode like a failed souffle, before that it was that Clinton was on the brink of death due to various mystery ailments, before that it was GWB having dementia. Nothing ever came of any of it. People who are under pressure behave weirdly sometimes.

And now we have people who say Biden has dementia.

I recently played poker with a guy who made some comment about Biden’s mental faculties, then proceeded to play like he was even worse off cognitively than he claimed Biden was. Couldn’t read the board. Wasn’t sure he had a pair after calling a river bet. Couldn’t keep track of where the action was.

https://twitter.com/_esaliba/status/1517094954190921728

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The Phoenix Ghost story is pretty damn tantalizing:

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https://twitter.com/Mason_R_Clark/status/1517284906342268928

https://twitter.com/Odessa_Journal/status/1517286485908762624

image

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https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1517111330322403334

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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1517303689022967808

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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1517254324757356544

Russia better hurry up and invade Finland before the paperwork goes through.

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if merkel didn’t foresee war (and noone did), it was a defensible financial analysis given how much cheaper you can make gigawatts of electricity with renewables and gas as opposed to nuclear.

latest consensus number is that shutting off russian gas shrinks the german economy 3% (versus 10-15% of russian economy). that’s bad, but not hyper-turbo-fucked. it would essentially take a year to find gas elsewhere.

Where did you see that 3% number?

After Russia annexed Crimea it was absolutely foreseeable that making Germany dependent on Russia energy that this will put the country in an impossible position at some point.

The article says it takes 3 years to transition completely from Russian gas.

there are several different analyses. i’m citing some russian-speaking ones, guriev and milov. but here’s the guardian.

Depending on the predictions of various thinktanks and economic institutes, an immediate stop in Russian gas deliveries could shrink Germany’s GDP by as little as 0.1 or as much as 5.2 percentage points.

Regarding drone naming, there is an analog of the Phoenix myth in Russian and Ukrainian folklore. According to Wikipedia, the firebird is

a magical and prophetic glowing or burning bird from a faraway land which is both a blessing and a harbinger of doom to its captor

Or maybe it’s just called that because Space Ghost is already copyrighted.

Well they say if you can’t spot the person without dementia after 10 minutes…

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The “Biden has dementia” memes are making their monthly, orbital pass-by.

Earlier today a pickled, retired NY cop posted a diatribe about how obvious it is that Biden has dementia.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517324104478638081