Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Which statements are we talking about exactly?

I’m just venting about the back and forth fighter jet statements from the Pentagon. It feels like sending planes would be a significant shift but the US and allies can’t make up their minds as to whether it’s a good idea or not.

Yeah who knows in that. I’m perfectly ok with them keeping Russia guessing though

https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1516951622303236096?s=21&t=ta9wlCMkYW2gy26lVdEICQ

This is good news

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Apparently enough parts to re-enable 20 jets. A bunch of howitzers, APCs, some crazy sounding missiles from Norway and the UK

It is good that things that would help Ukraine are unknown or at least shrouded in secrecy, and it is good for Ukraine to bellow about not getting enough aid even if they are getting plenty. So, it is hard to know how to regard Ukraine’s reports about being undersupplied, because even 3rd party OSINT types would have the sense not to out clandestine shipments. My inclination is to focus on how Ukraine is faring in defending and recapturing its territory, and if those brave souls are making progress, then I figure they are getting at least passable help from us and others. The time for a proper accounting of the various contributions of Western nations is either when Ukraine starts ceding territory again, or when Russia is out. I’m fine with thinking the US and others are doing the barest minimum under the radar until one of those things.

Entrenched Russian positions

the howitzers promise was walked back apparently. at least according to Conflict Intelligence team

I just saw a tweet that said they’re in Ukraine and in the way

This guy has some real balls. He’s in St. Petersburg. My takeaway from skimming this vid is that sanctions haven’t hit middle class consumers in major cities that hard. However, I suspect a lot of the professional class is/was employed by or dependent on foreign firms and most of Russia is a lot poorer than St. Petersburg. Things won’t be getting any better.

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Remember Hunter Biden and the biolabs? We were so young and innocent then.

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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1516879480157052928

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1517037546773045249

Lol they got the smallest table they could find. They both look so uncomfortable.

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1517025641580933120

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1517036072571744257

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1517045090136604672

Seen this twice now. If it’s true I guess the Russians are just going to contain azovstal and claim they have taken Mariupol.

The utility is broader than that. Counter-battery attacks against Russian artillery and strikes on mobile Russian forces using human or drone spotters are critical, especially during this phase of the war.

I think one of the major problems is that the West has no idea what the ultimate goal should be. If the goal is that Russia gets driven out of Ukraine you have to send heavy weapons and equip them. Right now it looks more like to do as little as possible and see what the outcome is. Unfortunately I still believe that there are politicians esp in Germany who are indifferent and wouldnt care one way or the other. They rather want to get back to business as usual. I read news that there was a list from the german weapon manufacturers which contained heavy weaponry that was available but this list got slashed by the german government.
I find it kinda amusing when Germany argues that we need our tanks to defend ourselves and fulfill our assignments within NATO. I have no idea what could happen where we need our weapons more than the Ukraine right now? China sailing an invasion force around the world? African refugees overrunning us?

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The Marders are part of the big NATO Expertise that is coming up and without them it cannot take place as planned. At least that’s the official explanation.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1516815661045100544

https://twitter.com/dave_brown24/status/1517152964355403777