Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

I literally texted my 18 yo son this last night.
Klitschko is correct and Rogan is just a really stupid mofo w no idea. At least Klitschko kept some brain cells along the way.
Joe Rogan’s not on the good side.

Lol at it being heresy to talk about the threat of nuclear war when US medium range missiles are hitting Russia and they are returning fire with a hypersonic missile that can carry up to 4 300kt nuclear warheads.

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The same people who yawn at the threat of missile exchanges were heading to fallout shelters in 2016 when Trump and Kim Jong-un (NK has like 8 warheads) were exchanging angry Tweets.

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Doesnt look so good for Ukraine. Apparently the Russians managed a breakthrough in the south east moving back the front line about 20 km and are now at Welyka Nowosilka. Thats the town where Ukraine started its unsuccessful sommer offensive last year. Its possible that the Russians might be able to bypass the 3rd line of defense. After that its open country till the Dnipro.

I hate to say it, but ever since the election, I think Zelensky will be dead in less than a year.

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I think NK is orders of magnitude more likely to send off some crazy nuke strike than Russia, and I doubt that’s a controversial position.

Don’t talk to me you fucking moron. They have like 8 warheads and they’d be lucky to hit anything. Russia-USA exchange is the only danger of Global Thermonuclear War.

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Sane as always micro

Why is it that you and your ilk always attack the mental faculties of people you disagree with, rather than the merits of their arguments? It’s an indication you hold a weak position. This is just simply bad posting. Like even the point you think you’re making here is nonsense against what he has posted, and when faced with rebuttal, you back off with some weak attack. This is a pattern. Back up your point or fuck off like the coward everyone knows you are to your private forum. No one cares.

What merits? I said I’d be concerned more by a strike from NK, micro responded with insults and talk about targeting and number of warheads… but didn’t actually address if NK would strike. Micro is throwing a little tantrum, like always

Poor little Ikes getting his feelings hurt.

I think Russia is unlikely to fire one as a lot of their oligarch kids are in western countries. Thing with russia is strength is the only thing they respect so you can’t back down to them. usa has for way too long. Biden admin should have said here’s the weapons ukraine do whatever you want with them a long time ago.

NK strikes are unlikely to make it to our continent. (yes, I know they’re close) They are in a bind though, kinda have to follow with an alliance with their neighbors. Nobody else will.

Of course they are unlikely, but how unlikely is unlikely enough? 1% chance in the next 5 years? If these actions change a 0.1% chance to a 1% chance, that’s very significant given the stakes.

It hasn’t changed

Furthermore, allowing Russia to use nuclear blackmail to achieve their foreign policy goals only makes them using a nuke more likely, as it will encourage further nuclear blackmail

Exactly the same risk? 0.0000000% change? Oh, maybe it’s less likely that there will be nuclear war because of the missile exchange. Is it less likely now?

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russia crashing a
German company's plane on NATO soil after Scholz politely asked
them not to escalate? How rude.

Maybe Scholz should
send flowers next time pic.twitter.com/YYBfz2mQ5x


Akash Maniam (@ManiamAkash) November
27, 2024

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if Germany asks nicely, maybe they’ll shoot down their plane instead of crash it.

Zero percent change. Russia has no intent of using a nuclear weapon. Russia is desperately trying to make the west thing they might so that they will sacrifice Ukraine. The problem with that strategy is that they’ll eventually do the same thing in a new territory.

So 0.00000000% forever? Man, you really know your stuff Ikes.

What if there’s another missile exchange? The only possible answers to that, for you, are that either another missile exchange is impossible or it would also have exactly zero impact on the likelihood of nuclear war.

Zero percent change.

Could Russia do something utterly insane? Sure. That baseline risk hasn’t changed.

Can you capitulate to threats they clearly will not follow through on? No, that will encourage more belligerent behavior that would risk a major conflict that would risk nuclear war. Appeasing state actors who want to dominate all of Europe doesn’t work out well.