Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

And the other faction of the board is indistinguishable from the Chinese Communist Party:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/china-us-blame-ukraine-war/

Concerning…

Some people are able to hold multiple ideas in their head at the same time.

Supporting Ukraine is fine, cluster bombs are not fine. Just look at the statistics on civilian casualties after the fact.

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I like how Afghanistan withdrawal, ending a 20 year conflict with casualties in the hundreds of thousands and changing the regime for a country of 40 million, is utterly trivial, a minor quibble not worth bringing up. But I guess all wars seem insignificant compared to the one true conflict that matters: defeating your forum enemies.

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It isn’t trivial. But I don’t think succumbing to reality at the end of a 20 year war makes Biden not a neocon.

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The Krasnodar commander that was fatally shot in Russia while on a run would routinely post his route on the Strava workout app. This one from recently was liked by Kyrylo Budanov: you literally can’t make this shit up

Kyrylo Budanov is a Ukrainian commander

https://twitter.com/mexic0la_/status/1678524860186648582?t=VJ64O5yMbmNzkBD4l6sRVA&s=19

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Neocons believe in unilateral action. Biden is much more accepting of multilateral international organizations.

Of course, someone like Mearsheimer believes domestic politics don’t matter, so US foreign policy would be the same, so whether neocons are in charge or not is irrelevant to his theories.

You can use whatever label you want, but ending the war in Afghanistan when a lot of detractors would not is a material distinction, and two people who disagree on a lot of things finding common ground in wanting to arm a people fighting back against invasion and genocide, one of the most open and shut cases of “who’s the bad guy” you can imagine, is hardly proof that everyone is the same.

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“Western aligned Ukraine” = non super corrupt Ukraine funneling all their money and resources to Russia/Putin.

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From my brief observation, that is what he says, but it is not clear that it’s what he believes. He has to say that because, in his model, nations are supposed to be black boxes. But when he wants to predict Russia’s actions, he can’t resist peeking inside the box: he immediately asks what Putin said. It doesn’t matter that Putin lies or contradicts himself, or that someone else has contradicted him; Mearsheimer just picks the thing that Putin said that suits the argument he’s making at the moment. It only matters that it impresses the rubes.

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The invasion of Ukraine has to be in the running for biggest foreign policy blunder ever. Putin seems to have accomplished the exact opposite of all his goals.

Oh sure. So much wore than Vietnam and the carpet bombing of adjacent countries that cost ~2 million lives and where, 50 years later, people live in fucking trees to avoid being blown up by unexploded bombs, which ended in humiliating withdrawal for the aggressor.

And Iraq/Afghanistan - hundreds of thousands of deaths, little gained.

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lol what Putin or any other national leader says about their country’s international relations isn’t domestic politics. It’s…international relations.

Like how much do you have to reflexively hate Mearsheimer to think that looking at what Putin said about Ukraine contradicts his “domestic politics don’t matter to international relations” rule? If John can’t look at what foreign policy elites say and do in the international relations sphere how could his field of study even be a thing? What would IR research even look at? “Well this country is next to that country on a map. Watch out!”

Since I’m not an expert, I like experts. I need to be able to trust them. I tend to dislike people who abuse my trust. From what little I’ve seen, Mearsheimer seems more like a politician than a careful academic.

Mearsheimer says states are black boxes. He constructed the model. If it’s fundamentally inconsistent, that’s his problem.

You not understanding his model and its inputs is your problem. Like, of course he cares about what leaders say and think about foreign policy. He wrote a whole book about how and why leaders lie about international relations!

I don’t hate the guy. The people I hate are on a very short list. Putin, Trump, Ted Cruz, a few more. Even Elon isn’t on the list. Hell maybe I could leave Trump and Cruz off it. Ofc the list of people I think are contemptible jackasses and scumbags is longer.

oh hey if noted moral authority Max Boot says so

I thought I was supposed to fuck off?

It’s not that I generally dislike you, but man you’re annoying. If anyone less pigheaded wants to defend Mearsheimer’s specific statements about the war I might be able to go a few rounds.

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Specific statements about the war? You’re saying he’s inconsistent simply for noting what Putin said about Ukraine. That’s nonsense.

But yeah man, you can fuck right off with calling me a hero worshipping rube. What the fuck response do you expect to those kind of insulting posts?

Keed I have admittedly not been following this thread super closely but it seems you think the invasion is somehow justified? That seems like such a bizarre position given the data can you summarize briefly? I’m curious.