I know trolly already comment on this, but wow.
pretty rich for a “realist” to claim that a frozen conflict is both likely, and represents a win for the invader. what i’ve heard from practically every political scientist a win usually involves some sort of agreement between the sides. freezing the conflict until putin’s death is only a “win” for putin, certainly not for russia
UA having the upper hand in 2022 seems … not based on anything. like, Russia prepared for the invasion for allegedly years, invaded, had a massive advantage in all sorts of materiel, including long range missiles and air force, occupied vast swaths of land, almost (lol Moskva) complete freedom of navigation in the black and azov seas.
but in 2023, russia’s rocket and armor advantage is at least diminished, if not reduced 2-3x. ukraine armor is 2x better than it was during kharkiv/kherson counteroffensives. the only advantage i can think of is that ru forces will now be in defensive posture, rather than ua in defense mode.
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The president said he feared “a large number of soldiers will die” and that he still wanted more air defence systems to protect troops from the larger Russian air force, still largely intact 15 months after the Kremlin launched its full invasion.
I would love to hear his thoughts on who “won” Vietnam or the “war on terror”
Mearsheimer, leading scholar, apparently missed class when the Battle of Asculum was discussed.
guy who has been wrong about everything so far has opinions
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lol you guys never listened to anything he said or read anything he wrote, how in the world would you know what he’s been right or wrong about?
because he came to the wrong conclusion every time. it stands to reason he employed either faulty premises or faulty logic, or both.
Doesn’t embed, damn.
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I listened to the entire 1.5 hours of Mearsheimer’s talk, including the introduction by the stuffed shirt and the Q&A at the end. Sacks’ summary is accurate. In some ways I think more highly of JM and in other ways less. At the beginning he says he’s telling us what he thinks will happen, not what he hopes will happen, but it’s hard to explain a lot of what follows unless it’s the result of motivated reasoning. The way he invents his own evidence is reallly something.
BTW, he says if he had to he’d bet on the US being behind Nord Stream. He also says he’s available to all of you out on the internet if you want to argue with him. Do with these two pieces of information what you will.
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We have you to parrot him, why would we need to read it ourselves?
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Managed to find a statement more false than Mearsh’s ITT.
there’s more nuggets
— This is a war of attrition similar to WWI. The goal is to bleed out the other side. “This is Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier standing toe to toe and beating the hell out of each other in the center of the ring.”
ukraine was not a heavyweight in feb 22 or at the end of 22. if russia showed itself it was not as a heavyweight. even now, 18 months later they are struggling to contain raids into their own territory. did rdk just happen to find a weak spot on the border or was it just never defended well?
— Casualty Exchange Ratio is at least 2:1, meaning that two Ukrainians are likely dying for every Russian. The Ukrainians’ claim of 7:1 CER in their favor is ludicrous. The Russians are not doing mindless frontal assaults. Recent RUSI report shows that Russian tactics have improved.
oh geez, where do we begin. 2:1 advantage probably would have meant russia captures kyiv, kharkiv, mykolaev, and odessa. as far as not doing mindless frontal assaults. by now we already saw streets and roads and river crossings with dozens of burned out russian tanks. we saw fields littered with dead wagnerites who had no choice but to move in a frontal assault and get blown up.
ROFL
He whittled it all the way down to 1:1! But this guy went to West Point so what do I know. He imagines Ukraine using F-16s to attack the Kremlin, which I guess is hyperbole but wow.
Edit: I guess I missed where he went from 7:1 Russian casualties to Ukrainian to 2:1 Ukrainian casualties to Russian. He then says it’s even worse than that for Ukraine, maybe even 4:1, but later when talking about losses in offense vs. defense, he says it looks like “a wash” to him, so he’s kind of all over the place.
just talk about what the casualty exchange ratio is likely to be the
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ukrainians often say and it’s reported frequently in the west that seven
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Russians die for every one Ukrainian is ludicrous
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seven Russians die for every one Ukrainian given that artillery imbalance
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this fails the common sense test I think that the exchange ratio is more
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like two to one I think that two ukrainians probably die
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for everyone Russian I have a number of friends who believe the number is higher it’s more like three to one maybe even
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four to one again just given those artillery figures It’s gotta be two to
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one at least so ukrainians are losing lots more
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people than the Russians are
…
okay so if you look at the course of the war since February 24th 2022 it’s very
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difficult to make the argument that the Russians have been on the offensive more
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than the ukrainians have been on the offensive it looks like Awash to me
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Saying the Ukrainians are losing twice as many as Russians defending with superior tech is quite the statement.
Fucking lol
Someone blew the dam
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1665907948986458113?t=86wSRTgl6yn8bVoEYaOhmw&s=19
https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1665913714925531137?s=19
They don’t have to worry about a counterattack there now. Each side blaming the other. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant may be affected due to lack of cooling water. I’m not sure what its current operating status is.
Mearsheimer believes that the war in Vietnam was dumb because it didn’t matter who won. He advocated focusing on destroying Al-Qaeda and its allies and leaving other terrorist organizations alone. He also advocated cutting off support to Israel if it didn’t allow the creation of a viable Palestinian state.
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