Realists. I’m sure your interpretation is different.
Results oriented
This thread has gotten really quiet. Did people find a different genocide to care about?
2 Likes
New War on the Rocks dropped.
I’m sure mearsheimer didn’t and wouldn’t say that he was right when he said that Russia wouldn’t invade Ukraine. Was he right when he said that Russia would wreck Ukraine as a functioning country before letting it join the west? I think so.
front isn’t moving, calm before the storm. more raids are probably going to happen prior and during counteroffensive. russia’s sensibilities were rustled after drones from alibaba suddenly hit moscow last night.
vacuously true. he would wreck ukraine regardless of whether ukraine joined the west or russia. putin poisoned ukrainian president, and tried to capture and kill another one.
Is suspect the drones are Ukrainian made. I believe they now how a fairly high output of locally produced Iran-like drones.
i haven’t read that their drones are iran-like, but anything’s possible. early information about the drones hitting moscow are of different models and information is still at least incomplete. like some people glammed onto this beaver drone, for which there are no good pictures of its full shape or of it flying elsewhere, and seems premature to claim it’s definitely that. additionally the news reports say the beaver cost $500k euros to make. why send it on such a low probability of success mission? that is also dubious.
By Iran-like I only meant relatively inexpensive and high volume, not sure of the actual design.
as usual we’re going to know a lot more in a few days.
fwiw, shaheed drones can cost cost russia as much as 20-40k. it’s cheap but not that cheap.
The report I saw suggested the Moscow attacks hit wealthy residential neighborhoods, which suggests someone is targeting oligarchs.
So Wagner is alleging that the Russianmilitary mined Wager’s retreat and that a Russian general was drunk and shot at them so they captured him
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1665466257884282886?t=2jw9oAlkY2Y158a3FMy4mg&s=19
Mines were probably Ukrainian special forces in disguise.
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1665589545180741632?t=xaDysFtyERriFKAXOWcd9A&s=19
(1) Current status:
— The Russians are winning the war. Ukraine had the upper hand in 2022 but Russia has it in 2023. The Russians have not won yet, but Mearsheimer believes they are winning and will win the war.
…
(2) What’s likely to happen next:
— Russia will take the 4 oblasts they already annexed plus (if they can) another 4 oblasts to the Dnipro River including Odessa and Kharkiv.
…
— There’s not going to be a peace agreement. Best case is a frozen conflict.
…
— F16s won’t make a difference because it takes a long time to train good pilots. Also the Russians have very good air defense, and their own Air Force is ready to engage.
…
— Mearsheimer believes that if the Russians are losing the war, the likelihood of nuclear use to rescue the situation is high. (The war is existential for the Russians.) But as it stands now, the odds of nuclear use are very low because the Russians are winning.
… 
2 Likes
Seems legit.
2 Likes
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1665747142437220352
In the early hours of June 5, the first announcement of what looks like it could be the start of a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive came from an unusual source.
At 1:31 a.m. Kyiv time, the Russian Defense Ministry, which famously floundered in silence in response to Ukraine’s lightning counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast last year, reported a “large-scale offensive on five sectors of the front in the southern Donetsk area.”
The ministry claimed that Ukraine had committed six mechanized and two tank battalions to the fight, from the 23rd and 31st Mechanized Brigades. As per usual in official Russian reports, the Ukrainian attack was claimed to be soundly defeated, with the ministry reporting the loss of 16 Ukrainian tanks and over 250 personnel.
As the sun rose over Ukraine, Russian pro-war Telegram channels often known as “milbloggers” began to report a less rosy picture of Russia’s defense in the area.
Alexander Khodakovsky, who had previously served as a battalion commander and official in Russia’s proxy presence in Donetsk Oblast, also claimed that Ukrainian forces were attacking near the front-line town of Vuhledar in southwestern Donetsk Oblast, and had found limited success.
“By suppressing (our) communications, the enemy managed to put us in a difficult position,” Khodakovsky wrote, adding that fighting was ongoing for the village of Novodonetske.
A few hours later, milblogger Semen Pegov, better known as WarGonzo, said that “unfortunately,” he could confirm Khodakovsky’s reports.
“The news from the Velyka Novosilka-Vuhledar front line is becoming more and more disturbing with each passing hour,” Pegov wrote. “The situation is heating up. The attack is much more serious than yesterday.”
The sector of the line of contact referred to by Khodakovsky, Pegov, and likely also by the Russian Defense Ministry when saying “southern Donetsk area,” is the easternmost part of the southern front line stretching from the Dnipro River in Zaporizhzhia Oblast across to Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.
I’ll give him Ukraine won’t be doing much flying of F-16s into Russian-controlled airspace. Weird mix of reasonable with facepalm-quality stuff.
Eta. Oh, ofc Elon replying
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1665590459823976449?t=NZFhmKvKSYL1E10_8zbBIw&s=19