Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

May 9th is Victory Day in Russia, celebrating the defeat of the Nazis.
Up top is the parade back in 2020 and the bottom picture is from today.

That adorable l’il tank is a T-34 from WWII.

Here’s a close-up.

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https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1656009079830061075

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there’s one of the first videos of AFU using bradleys against a position of wagner defenders, who fled. some reports say AFU reclaimed 3 sq km southwest of bakhmut. another AFU commander reported via video his unit destroying two detachments of RU 72nd army brigade.

these might be offensive actions designed to force ru forces to change their defenses. not actual counteroffensive operation.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1656672385456820224?s=20

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https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1656721290911252482

https://twitter.com/vSchuylenburch/status/1656735736844910606

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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1656739969065447457?s=20

This is unverified and hard to believe but he does seem to like fucking around.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1656345700538384395?s=20

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I cannot believe Prigozhin would have so little concern for his personal safety.

If the VERY preliminary reports are accurate, Wagner will likely be encircled and decimated near Bakmut, so at least he won’t have to worry about managing Wagner anymore.

It does feel like something is imminent, but

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1656753496496979968?s=20

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tbf, ru mil bloggers were the first ones to post about the kharkiv offensive as well.

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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1656754560214474752?t=xU3bEQP1ORkB5m4ycPQIHA&s=19
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1656782728422105088?t=YId4XCTd3jB6ssyogO2vUg&s=19

Ukraine should wait with their offensive as long as additional equipment/munitions etc arrives faster than what they are spending in Bakhmut especially since Russia is spending a lot more without any real gains. You want to attack with as much of an advantage you can have to limit casualties. In the mean time keep looking for weak spots and defend. The only other restriction is that they need to complete their counter before the weather turns again.

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The Storm Shadow cruise missile has a range of over 250km (155 miles), according to the manufacturer.

By contrast, the US-supplied Himars missiles used by Ukraine only have a range of around 80 km (50 miles).

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https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1657049642582921216?t=YQjgRxmjYHNa3eXtl_Io0w&s=19
https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1657067832356503572?t=3visJN-HerQNpKlq-3gYwA&s=19

Hat tip to the Brits.

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https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1657061700007526401?s=20

BBC article above indicates Defence Minister stated missles ‘might already be in Ukrainian hands’ - confirmed!

He said the missiles were “going into” or already in Ukrainian hands, and described the move as “calibrated and proportionate to Russia’s escalations”.

Also stated this… (parp)

On Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would take an “appropriate” military response to any British-supplied Storm Shadow weapons used by Ukrainian forces.

cool, cool

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1656784221325623298?s=20

“Tactical weapons”= nuclear? Time to update the wiki page.

There are more instances on the list below. Not from a widely followed account, but I did a spot check and it seems to be accurate.

https://twitter.com/cuthbert_shaw/status/1654195976175771649?s=20

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Must be some reason the world’s largest arsenal isn’t donating anything within a 3 yr delivery time.

Last I heard UK was gonna be submerged by a underwater nuke - all is good, so far

They brought out an anime voice actor for this Wagner guy:

https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1657063305670688784?s=20

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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1657377869687824386?s=46&t=9xanL2tZoKj22erGoTuL4A

Unsporting.

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