Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Same for Russian soldiers.

Man, I’m not a good person.

I don‘t think going back to normal is all that likely no matter how much some people would like that.

Exhibit A:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1511776931649396741?s=21

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Tweet translated and with image for full glory.

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the reply with the edit that makes it so it’s pegging in the first imaged made me laugh irl

https://twitter.com/MSnegovaya/status/1511813839951646732

So there you go - lop maybe 20% off of the pro-Russia numbers in polls, as a very rough guide.

https://twitter.com/timjudah1/status/1511729876511993860

https://twitter.com/abunin/status/1511298317262721025

Meanwhile this is making the rounds in the pro-Russia parallel universe.

Slovenia I think ( could have been Lithuania) took a pretty strong stance vs China on human rights which cost them financially a lot.

Article says poll respondents skew liberal and educated. 53% supporting the war is pretty high among that population and in line with my impression that the Russian people are largely on board.

maybe michael flynn is more likely.

Yeah I’m mostly just looking at the fudge factor of what they feel comfortable reporting to any pollster vs. how they really feel. Whenever I see polls of Russians’ attitude on the war I always wonder about that (I’m sure they’d be more comfortable complaining about turnip prices or whatever).

So now I’m mentally going to chop 20% off the top as a very rough approximation. Feels truthy.

respondents to Levada’s and gov’t opinion center polls dropped off significantly. they used to get in the 30s and 40s % of responses, it is now down to 23-28%. people are being cagey too, they respond that they don’t follow ukraine news closely, which takes them out of the support/do not support completely.

many opposition figures have pointed out that polls during wartime are very often worthless, and while russia did not declare state of war, they are already shadow mobilizing.

it’s a very bad datapoint i agree, but i would not bet the farm on those numbers being true.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1511822974214619136

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1511823825452871688

These dudes love war crimes so much they commit them even in their own propaganda.

This story is obvious propaganda imo. Like stop and think critically for a sec:

  • Russia has had enough trouble moving around heavy vehicles that it actually needs for the war. There need to be good reasons to add another to the list.

  • If you were going to do a genocide, why not build large crematoria in the cities you’re intending to slaughter, or use the city’s existing crematoria? How does it make sense to bring them with you? It’s not like they’re complicated machines.

  • What is fuelling these things? Do you also have to haul sacks of coal around or something?

  • How many people can you fit in them? Let’s say it’s 10. It takes up to 2 hours to cremate people. To cremate 1,000 people this way would take 200 hours of round-the-clock burning.

  • What is wrong with the classic, time-honoured options of bulldozing people into mass graves or piling them up, pouring petrol on them and setting fire to them? If your answer is “to do a better job of hiding the evidence”, then what explains Bucha? Bucha is basically Kyiv, was the most important city in Ukraine not included in this hiding-the-evidence masterplan? Also, is hiding the evidence even something Putin cares about? Domestically people will believe whatever state TV says and internationally, look at the very public polonium poisonings etc.

I don’t believe this not because I don’t think Russia are going to do atrocities - I’m sure Bucha is just the beginning - but because even if I granted the plan was genocide, hauling mobile crematoria into Ukraine with you just makes no sense as a plan, logistically.

If these crematoria do exist - which I am dubious about - what does make sense is that they’re there to cremate Russian soldiers. Because “bulldoze them into mass graves and/or torch them in the streets” is not going to be an acceptable way for people to deal with their dead comrades, you need some semblance of a polite burial. And maybe dragging a means of disposal with you is less of a drain on manpower and resources than the alternatives of a proper burial or returning the corpse to the homeland.

It’s also pretty obvious what the utility is to Ukrainian propagandists to invoke the spectre of the Holocaust, I’m sure I don’t need to spell that out.

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Do you have a bot that alerts you every time the mobile crematoriums are mentioned? I presume this means we’ve been otherwise clean since you last appeared in this thread to tut-tut about the mobile crematoriums a couple of days ago?

Let’s imagine 2 scenarios:

A) The Russians plan to make examples of any man they see as possibly in the resistance, “disappear” any political enemies, and just rape and kill women, children, entire families and even pets for fun or spite, knowing there will never be any repercussions from above–disposing of the bodies in mobile crematoriums.

B) Everything above but without the mobile crematoriums.

Is that really a big enough distinction to get worked up about?

I feel like you’re working on some assumption that some here literally think Putin plans to kill 7 million Ukrainians - Holocaust-style. When I seriously doubt anyone here really thinks that. Not that Putin wouldn’t do it if he thought he could get away with it w/o NATO intervening.

No war crime. You’re the war crime.

US sanctions Putins daughters. I wonder if they have laptops…

This is how misinformation/propaganda works, is that people just repeat whatever story about how bad the Russians are and people are like “well their heart’s in the right place”, but when I point out that the claims are super unlikely to be true it’s like, why be so petty? What’s my motivation here? Am I in league with the Russians? For example, to you it’s totally normal behaviour to reply to my post 13 minutes after I posted it, while replying to the posts I quoted 10 or 11 hours after they were posted justifies wondering if I have a bot alerting me? OK man.

Here is what the mayor of Mariupol said:

The legal Mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boychenko, said the situation in the city "is no longer Chechnya or Aleppo. This is a new Auschwitz and Majdanek. The world should help punish Putin’s criminals.

The reason I think this matters is that an actual genocide in Ukraine would probably justify NATO involvement, with all the risks of nuclear escalation that this entails. So I think it’s important to be clear that so far, there is no evidence of actual genocide in Ukraine. And I fundamentally don’t think it’s weird to be interested in what is and isn’t true.

Edit, I think this is a good way to point out the double standard here:

To you, danby responding to Huehue’s post by claiming that Russia is building “a god damn fucking Auschwitz” inside Ukraine (even though you assure me nobody actually believes this) is not “getting worked up about it”, while me posting that I don’t believe this report is. I guess I need you to articulate why this is.

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russian logistics have not been top notch. so, they could have made those mistakes, which we are looking at with 20/20 hindsight. but regardless the mobile cremation which likely had the purpose of being for their own dead bodies and a few others isn’t evidence of no plan for atrocities.

the plan was always to bring in internal police and nazgvardia, subdue protests, arrest resistors and local officials. many were going to die, either under a pretense or in secrecy. when the plan went to shit, and without any overall comprehensive plan b, local looting and atrocities were already underway. it simply meant more resistors and witnesses needed to be dealt with.

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