holy shit if they can pull that off.
If you’re going to try an amphibious attack, might be optimal to do it now vs. letting them get dug in.
I think the point is to provide a second front and a very real threat of encirclement around the dug in forces to the east of Kherson.
Also, I’ve been wondering quite a bit about the dug in forces… is that really something that can work in 2022 even if it can’t be completely bypassed? There’s just so many spectacular failures of this since modern artillery became a thing. Right?
i still have doubts, although it seems that ukrainian channels being mum about it isn’t evidence. they successfully stayed silent during prior operations
I remember an American lieutenant saying “As long as dirt keeps stopping bullets, we’ll keep using it.”
AFAIK, Ukraine has no ability to move heavy equipment like artillery by boat. That peninsula has no large harbors. This means that if they push out of their beachhead, they will lose friendly artillery cover
Cutting off the land bridge to Crimea seems like it would be a big goal.
the benefits are pretty clear. the entire theater between dniepro and crimea is under himars fire control. it’s very favorable terrain and conditions for quick assault. the timing is pretty tight as well. wednesday is the next rammstein meeting
Checked the 22 thread. Certain posters are still beating the Ukraine=Nazi drum, and anyone rooting for Ukraine to take back their own territory is a war monger. Vatnik propaganda not dead yet.
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The plan can‘t be to just take the peninsula. How would they supply it? So they will have to push further to connect with the liberated part of Kherson. That seems to me like a very risky operation and Ukraine hasn‘t taken many unnecessary risks so far.
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Seems like a lot might depend on how willing the Russians are to put ships into that gulf so as to cut off further traffic. Based on those sea-based drone strikes, I don’t think they’ll be very eager to.
Zero chance Russian ships will come within artillery range of the coast. They aren’t even patrolling off Sebastopol anymore.
May have been lightly defended. The Russians also would have trouble supplying troops there and maybe they weren’t expecting Ukraine to try it again after the supposed failure a few months ago. But the Ukrainians may have had their eye on it for a while. A little reminiscent of Snake Island. As usual, 
Some damn good propaganda right here
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1591900962699894784?s=61&t=AgARDRSB0Uqrijc8S_K0dQ
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Not sure we can take it as anything more than “Ukraine wants this video out” right now
I think I read the entire peninsula was in easy range of Ukrainian artillery from the other bank.
pro-ru channels are lowkey denying it
gotta compare with lend-lease from russia
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