If the Russians would only blow the dam if they retreat, then Russia placing explosives on the dam that could be used to blow it up is an indication that they at least think retreat is a strong enough possibility to have their contingency in place.
Sure
These articles are talking about civilian evacuations, which everyone agrees is happening. I haven’t seen any reports of Russia withdrawing combat units from the west side of the river.
Does the tactical nuke get dropped on Kherson? Any tactical advantage to that?
No and no, other than wiping out a couple thousand AFU. As always, the reason to use a nuke is to scare Ukraine and the West into surrendering. Particularly after Putin just told his country Kherson is part of Russia.
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Beeb said the Black Sea was most likely, if he wanted to make a point
It’s plausible, but an intermediate step that’s more likely is to just resume testing in Siberia.
If the Russians do indeed retreat from the right side of the river in the near future will that change your opinions in any way?
It’ll just be that those of us saying Russia is retreating now were eventually made right but nevertheless were calling it too early.
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I don’t know whether the Russians have a facility to do nuke testing, the Soviets did it in Kazakhstan.
Others have already answered so this might be redundant but if the dam is destroyed:
The Ukrainians don’t have a strong motivation to do it. Effectively, they already have the Russians trapped on the right side so there’s no point. And the Ukrainians want the bridge intact to eventually cross the river.
If the Russians don’t believe they can hold the right side of the river and they want to keep the Ukrainians from using it, the Russians do have a motive to destroy the dam. The Ukrainians are coming so time is a factor. The bridge over the dam is a narrow crossing. A panicked retreat could create a traffic jam and make it a shooting gallery. Since Putin knows he can’t get his troops across, he has to leave them. No doubt this would be a “difficult decision”. Oh, well. Blow the dam.
In addition, destroying the dam takes out power from the hydroelectric plant and potentially from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility (I haven’t looked at the connection but I’ll take your word for it). The Russians have made it clear they want to maximize civilian pain. So blow the dam.
If the Russians destroy the dam, they could blame the Ukrainians. However unconvincing, it would be a classic stop-hitting-yourself ploy. So blow the dam.
I watch a lot of Columbo so I know that to zero in on whodunnit, in addition to motivation we should also consider means and opportunity. The Ukrainians have limited means for an effective attack from a distance and since the Russians control the dam, no opportunity for sabotage. Otoh, the Russians have motive, means, and opportunity.
Summing up, if the dam goes, the Russians did it.
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Surely they can pop one off underground or in some unpopulated woodland somewhere.
Change my opinion about what? I don’t know if the Russians are going to abandon Kherson or not. I’m saying that right now they seem to be reinforcing and consolidating their positions around Kherson. If there starts to be evidence they’re evacuating their forces across the river then, sure, I’ll believe it. If you guys were just saying that Russia was going to evacuate their troops to the east side of the river and then blow the dam, sure, entirely possible. But right now there’s probably tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on the wrong side of the river so it seems absurd that they’d do it now. And withdrawing those forces seems like it would be very difficult if not impossible.
The time for Russia to move its forces across the river was months ago. Iirc the rumor was Putin was advised to do so. He procrastinated as he is prone to do. Too late now. They’re trapped. Not much choice for now except to dig in. But Winter is approaching and they aren’t getting supplied. They don’t have much of a future.
Ukrainian Armed Forces:
When the the Russian troops realize, if they don’t already, that Putin has cut them loose, I hope most of them have the good sense to surrender.
I think strategic bombing was successful in WW2 against Germany and greatly hampered industrial production. Important military factories had to be built inside mountains or they would have been destroyed in no time.
https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1582907620960395265?s=20&t=y6wTotRm2Zq44wsodW1qXw
Obviously this ignores that the captured tanks need extensive repairs or might even be beyond repair, but still…
Great article, but uh, how dare you post something critical of US government policy 
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Latest ISW assessment. The … replace a lot of interesting details. Sounds familiar for some reason.
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack… The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their withdrawal…
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson requires that a Russian detachment left in contact hold the line against Ukrainian attack, covering other Russian forces as they withdraw. Such a detachment must be well-trained, professional, and prepared to die for its compatriots to effectively perform that duty… The collapse of a mobilized reservist detachment left in contact would likely lead to a Ukrainian rout of Russian forces on the same scale as Ukraine’s rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv.
Russian officials have remained cagey about whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a withdrawal from Kherson and are likely continuing to prepare the information space for such a collapse, as ISW has previously assessed…
Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) to cover their withdrawal and to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Kherson Oblast. Russian forces will almost certainly blame Ukraine for the dam attack, as ISW has previously assessed.[11] Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian cities and displace hundreds of thousands of people while damaging Ukraine’s already-tenuous electricity supply. Russia, however, has every reason to attempt to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive. Any claims that Russian forces would not blow the dam due to concerns for the water supply to Crimea are absurd. Crimea survived without access to the canal flowing from the Dnipro since Russia illegally invaded and annexed it in 2014 through the restoration of access following Russia’s invasion in February 2022… Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on October 21 that blowing the dam could cut water supplies to much of southern Ukraine and would pose a serious risk to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which lies upstream of the dam.[12] The ZNPP relies on water from the Kakhovka reservoir to cool its facilities.
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