Once the tide turned, that was the most likely outcome. The powers that be want to go back to business as usual. If an equilibrium point seems close, they will press for that. Both sides know this so they will try to make gains while they can.
most channels are talking about right bank ru defenses collapsing. there’s an unconfirmed speculation that a command post that was serving as communications hub must have been taken out.
Personally I think the new conscripts will eventually stabilize the front, though that might happen after Kherson falls. It’s not like poorly trained troops can never become effective, as we saw with the Ukrainian Territorial Defense.
what is eventually? the territory ru will be occupying might be a lot smaller in a month.
Maybe a line from the Dnipro to Severodonetsk.
Everyone ignore Elon he’s just trying to distract from TSLA being down 8% on a day when the S&P 500 is up 3%.
1 Like
Seems like a total collapse incoming. That activity across the Dnipro is going to get real interesting.
1 Like
i think severodonetsk is going to fall back into ukraine hands as a continuation of liman/svatove. it looks like ru would have to entrench 30-40k of conscripts into a line there right now, and try to withstand AFU push before cold sets in. i just don’t see the preparedness necessary to make it happen. plus the morale will be even lower when the conscripts see a battalion dead or captured. it would be tenuous at best, and ru command isn’t known for creating favorable circumstances.
1 Like
i got a ping from a fin advisor, seeing if there’s interest in buying low. uhhh not right now
I don’t know but TPTB probably don’t care as long as they can stabilize their economies. “Active war”, if it’s something like there was prior to the invasion would be a great outcome as far as they’re concerned.
The borders will be decided by who ends up where on the battlefield. Things could stabilize somewhere between pre-February 24 and where we are atm and Putin won’t like it but might be willing to try to sell it as a victory. Ukraine will have little choice in the matter if arms deliveries slow down.
Ofc everyone knows Putin will prepare to try again. But in the meantime Ukraine modernizes its military. A lot can happen in the time that’s bought.
to give a bit more context to the water supply claim. crimea by itself has underground fresh water enough to provide for the residents and tourism, while during soviet regime the canal provided most water required by agriculture. agricultural output was already dropping since before 2014, while tourism revenues were rising. but agriculture became non-viable with the shutoff of water canal, but also due to sanctions connected to 2014 annexation.
still, water consumption on the peninsula remained high, emptying the existing reservoirs since the shutoff. the major reason for it was russian expansion of military bases in crimea. what we are reading right now about explosions at crimean airfields and ammo depots, those did not exist before 2014. russia was limited to only a few bases by a treaty with Ukraine, and ukraine itself had a much smaller army presence. afterwards, they built many airstrips, new rail depots, and more importantly moved hundreds of thousands of military families there.
the russian side talks about the water crisis as a siege on the local population, while the ukrainian parliament sentiment was that it is non-sensical to support russian buildup of military assets. it is conceivable that the water rights would be left alone for agriculture, even though crimea itself is annexed. a similar agreement is still holding with the nat gas pipeline through ukraine.
1 Like
That’s a damn good point.
Obviously anything could happen, but I highly doubt there’s any sort of russian trap waiting to spring.
So assuming the rout is on along the dnipro, where’s the next line of defense? Sure doesn’t seem like they can hold the river if the ukranians are looping along it to encircle the remaining russians there.
It would seem like they probably can’t defend Kherson if they’re collapsing like this, so do they setup in Crimea and use the water? It sure seems like if they don’t fall back hard to some sort of naturally defensible point they’re going to continue to fail.
Problem is that I don’t think the Russians can do that politically.
Dniepro is gigantic, and AFU would have a hard time making across the same bridges they destroyed, while dodging RU efforts to prevent them from doing it. i think in the event of Kherson falling, 90% of the front moves back to donbass, with AFU potentially trying to secure the left bank of Dniepro out of Zaporozh’e. of course, the nuclear power plant is standing right there, so it’s another difficult task.
2 Likes
What’s the chances they can defend the river though if Ukraine feels like they can swoop along the banks of it though? You’d think that if the russians had it defended properly they could fire from the other bank and make their lives shitty, but it sure doesn’t seem that way. I’m guessing here obviously.
i don’t know. i feel like afu could make it across, but with bridges being under constant threat of strikes, resupplying troops on the other side would be hard. basically mirror image of the battle for Kherson right now. that’s just an armchair opinion. CIT/other generals haven’t weighed in as much on this.
such a peaceful nation. read the closed captions
https://twitter.com/linamalina7788/status/1576970395806502912