Probably got lucky they didn’t kill their commanders and just take off.
this is quite interesting because in the video of prigozhin pitching wagner to prisoners, he explicitly says that if they surrender or refuse to fight the deal is off.
yeah 5 days ago i said this itt
but, there are several things he is “offering” which are clear empty promises, including [paraphrasing] “don’t surrender – you’ll each have two grenades to detonate before you are captured”. jlawok.gif
whole thread is good, but the map is also a chef’s kiss in itself
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1571563708685471748
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Putin is addressing the country in a few hours where he seems likely to announce full mobilization and annexation of the oblasts they partially control. The Duma passed a law making it more difficult to avoid service and the proxy states are pretending to hold referendums. This represents Putin’s second to last card to play.
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Under Russian doctrine if those territories are declared part of Russia, her can use nukes to defend them.
ukraine has already for months struck targets in Belgorod, Kursk, and Crimea, which * check notes * are parts of russia. so, the tactical nuke threaet would already be in play.
also, referendum now is a very desperate move. it was a bad plan back in june, it’s even worse now. it’s not like after the referendum putin would somehow have a vice grip on kherson. also most territory in expendable if fit means he can freeze the conflict.
DNR figurehead already said voting will be sept 23-27. that’s … very soon. like he’s just trying to preempt another AFU advance which could mean another 1000 sq km or more, with nothing in return.
but here is my armchair and implausibly unlikely exit strategy. hold the referendum, lose it everywhere except LNR/DNR plus mariupol (probably necessary to cover up war crimes), and quickly retreat to more or less feb 24 borders in the view of most western observers. maybe not lose the referendum, but have the outcome that kherson wants independent status, rather than straight up annexation, similar to lnr/dnr post-2014.
and he probably needs to plan immediate next moves: ready for stonewall defense with thousands of bodies on a much smaller front, declare victory at home, and send lavrov out there to beg for talks.
Strikes != Invading to retake the territory.
As for the rest, I’m not sure that’s enough for him to sell victory, but perhaps.
are you sure that reading is in the doctrine? have they been following their war doctrine upto now? regardless if it’s in there, do you think that’s a victory at home? do you think it’s desirable to create a small nuclear blast zone (with possible pollution) which they then have to hold?
Who knows what they think is desirable? It seems like none of their leadership and barely any of their population have a strong grasp on reality. For all we know there are people claiming that they have developed some kind of nuke that leaves no pollution or that they tech to clean it up or that the people of Russia won’t care.
Yeah I feel like even tactical nukes are just too destructive for Putin to use on territory he actually wants. That said, I could see him doing it out of total spite once his defeat is pretty much assured, just so he can laugh and say “sure, we’ll now concede this territory that you wanted back so badly, good luck with it now that it’s radioactive rubble”. Dude would probably nuke a few thousand of his own soldiers in the process too if it were too inconvenient to get em out first.
do they though? how do we know the same ridiculous state of disrepair of their military hasn’t affected their nuclear program as well?
yeah, i somehow don’t think it makes sense, even in a total scorched earth retreat aimed to stop afu from advancing for awhile. so like, worst case he takes out kherson, or the center of kyiv or something. but that carries so many risks, not the least of which is revealing exact tactical nuclear capability
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572266077710843904
This seems like a more important reason to hold the fraudulent referendums. Russian political entertainers have been threatening nukes against everyone all of the time.
Also this
https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1572208480433610752
https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1572224420269248517
I guess they think it’d scare Kyiv but I wouldn’t think it would.
Good point, but they could launch a strike in Ukraine to retaliate. The general mobilization angle and sending conscripts there does make more sense though.
And speech cancelled. Seems like they are in complete disarray
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Perhaps a good moment to use a one time?
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i mean, he’s been told by everyone that general mobilization is necessary for months. so, he just waited until the very last possible and least effectual moment, and it might not even work anymore. biggest problem with it, there are no low-/mid-commanders to train conscripts. so many are dead, and most were shit anyway.