Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

kyrgyzstan and tajikistan did the same thing last month and the month before that. like yeah xi is probably worried, but he doesn’t care to change any of his own plans for it to go away. and putin thinks he can drag more countries into a conflict, but he’s so overextended he’s going to lose everyone

Who is they though? With no more info I can imagine that it’s instigated from outside with they being any of US/NATO, Ukraine, or even China deciding now is a good time to give Putin something extra to think about. Ofc it could just be the two antagonists feeling unrestrained bc Putin’s eye is elsewhere.

Hmm ok.

putin thinks he can drag more countries into a conflict

He hasn’t been too successful at that. You mean China, as an ally? Other than moral support and buying oil and gas that seems implausible.

he wants to start a bunch of fires so that the europe gets scared of it spinning out of control. even better if usa has to ship weapons somewhere other than ukraine. i can’t tell you it’s not going to work, but putin is going to lose anyway.

It makes sense that he wants to increase anxiety in the West but that strategy would work better if the fires weren’t in his own backyard.

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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570662673305735169?t=_eqIVsEQOYvQgJtpqGR6OQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/bentarzynski/status/1570663373049851904?t=KInsgHfHrpwlowyddnGe0Q&s=19

https://twitter.com/michaeltanchum/status/1570666233414156290?t=dd37Yg0SUZudLIZi7f-hVw&s=19

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donbass is in the front yard, and it didn’t stop him from cultivating it for 8 years.

also he hoped really hard dprk and drc would attract more attention in asia, as would Serbia/kosovo in europe. as of yet, that didn’t really shift any pressure off of russia. armenia/azerbaijan conflict probably makes sense for him, as it can easily draw turkey into the theater with russian troops present. that could be the mother of all provocations.

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1570732420063981571?t=Y9-JUFoE4zDT-sn-dE4r-A&s=19

Germans seizing Russian oil? Wasn’t that the game plan in WWII?

It was, but Hitler blundered and lost an Army trying to take Stalingrad.

to be fair, that came after ru army blundered and lost an army under kharkiv.

His supporters aren’t onboard with that approach.

https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1570776934459772929?t=KsMjzdWboliiZ1qwQQlpJA&s=19

For the time being, Xi also wants stability. He can’t like Putin fucking with the world economy. If he was ready to go after Taiwan maybe it would be different. He’ll only support Putin in ways that also benefit China.

xi has extracted upto a trillion out of russia, via very advantageous trade “deals”. eg in the far east, russia is pumping gas to china below extraction+transportation costs, at a time when NG is at an alltime high, because strategic genuis etc.

for xi’s own plans in taiwan, having a militaristic invader in europe is going to keep at least some of the west’s attention away from china.

so, it would make sense that xi likes putin staying in power. yet putin is doing everything to lose the war and the throne as soon as possible.

Not only did they seize them, they’re turning the biggest one carbon neutral.

Alex, I’ll take things you love to see for alllllll the money.

Yeah, Russia turning itself into a second class global citizen economically plays into China’s hands big time, because China will still deal with them but they can leverage that for way better terms. I’m confident China wasn’t ready to invade Taiwan anyway, they play the long game and they won’t move until it’s extremely advantageous. If they were close to being ready, this would have tipped them over probably.

That said, seeing the mighty Russians get routed by little old Ukraine, and in particular seeing the resolve of the Ukrainian people has to be giving Xi some pause. They could lay waste to the island easy enough, but that’s not a win for them. They need to take it with minimal loss of civilian life and damage to infrastructure. It’s not going to be easy to land tens of thousand of troops on an island if the people are all picking up arms.

Meanwhile, it’s easy to see a scenario where Xi’s real goal with Taiwan is to saber rattle and use it as an issue to give the West a win every time they have to negotiate other things, so that China can extract more on the other issues.

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Or to keep a lid on his domestic problems.

in other news, AFU forced their way onto the left bank of Oskil and liberated the rest of Kupyansk.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin renewed his threats to sink an international agreement to unblock Ukraine’s vital grain exports through the Black Sea, saying not enough grain was going to the world’s poor.

Mr. Putin has made the false claim before, raising doubts about the long-term survival of the United Nations-brokered pact, agreed to earlier this year to address a global hunger crisis. Some 28% of the more than three million tons of grain shipped under the agreement has gone to lower income countries, including Egypt, India and Iran, among others. The increased supplies have also helped bring down prices across the board, easing the pressure on some of the world’s most vulnerable populations.

“Let’s really hope that a significant part of it—so far this has not been achieved—will still go through the U.N. food program for the poorest countries,” the Russian president said.

If Russia moves to disrupt the grain export agreement, it would likely trigger another spike in global food prices at a time when 50 million people are dealing with severe hunger this year, according to the U.N. Russia’s invasion shattered the agricultural sector in Ukraine, which produced about 10% of the world’s wheat and 15% of its corn before the war.

exhumed remains in Izyum pics are starting to get leaked. some real horror show shit in there broken bones, teeth, sexual assault. avoid it if you can.