https://twitter.com/Ukrinform_News/status/1512679271738847237
Ukraine putting in a lot of work shooting down their own missiles, which the Russians definitely don’t have, just to keep up the illusion.
https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1512680320063217664
This picture hits me harder than any yet.
I haven’t followed this as closely the last week or two. But basically most of the fighting is going to be in Donbas and along the southern coast now, right? Ukraine has the advantage there, but it’s not a guarantee?
Seems like if Putin manages to hold the territory they had at the outset in Donbas, and get it and Crimea recognized by Ukraine and the international community, has has a small win to sell to his people.
Any insight into what happens if Ukraine wins outright and reclaims territory? That backs Putin into a corner big time. Same question, but Ukraine moves into Crimea too and tries to take it back. Does the international community support that?
Seems like Ukraine is well positioned for some kind of victory, but the question is what’s the path to peace so that victory can be realized?
If Ukraine wins and reclaims Donbas territory - Russia loses face unless they’re willing to nuke.
Same for Crimea, but double. Guessing international community strongly discourages this, due to fear of nukes.
Nobody knows the path to peace. So far the only “golden off ramps” proposed for Putin will clearly never be acceptable to Ukraine.
Maybe “slightly more territory in Donbas than Russia already had” will work for both sides.
My biggest question is - do the Russians think they’re going to hold Kherson and the land bridge? They seem to be pretty dug in in Kherson and defending it hard. But do they have enough forces to defend Kherson and still make offenses into the Donbas? That seems to be the big test at the moment.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512704940233404422
Fuck - more massacres to be uncovered, or carried out with missiles.
I think there’s a real chance that won’t work for either side. Idk, maybe in a few months when they’re both spent. It doesn’t sound like a long term solution though. Fairly decent chance that any Russian government will think they need to dominate Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states for security reasons (every Russian leader for like 400 years has, why should now be different). Total defeat in Ukraine and holding that status quo for like a century may be the best bet to avoid a recurring bloodbath in eastern Europe.
The real insanity of the Russian operation in the north was that they overextended their supply lines in a mad dash to take Kyiv as fast as possible. They captured none of the major cities in the north and left huge pockets of resistance behind them. That both ties up troops who need to keep an eye on all those bypassed cities and makes Swiss cheese of their supply lines, which now have to detour off of the all the main roads (which naturally run through the cities). The whole thing was a Hail Mary play to capture Kyiv in 30 days or burn out that whole army for nothing. And they didn’t capture Kyiv.
The worry is that they adopt a non-insane plan in the south and capture the key cities, leave adequate troops behind to defend their supply lines, not march to unrealistic political timetables, etc. Then maybe they perform more in line with pre-war expectation.
I’m not certain about this, but I don’t think Ukraine accepts a settlement that cedes any territory or leaves Russian/separatist troops anywhere in Ukraine (except maybe in Crimea). Putin will never accept that deal, so a quick end to the war seems unlikely unless the Russians fold in the south and are just driven out.
Taking donbas is a realistic goal.
Going deep and trying to take dnipro is where they will run into same over extension problems as before.
Well on the other hand, Ukraine gets to free up its forces in Western Ukraine and move it over as well.
In the last 6 weeks Ukraine has been training 100k new soldiers.
It’s not going to get any easier for Russia.
https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1512760553722322954
Russian soldier films himself raping a baby apparently.
Anyone have any opposition to giving Ukraine migs after seeing shit like this?
https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1512781908475797512
Ukrainians are closing in on Kherson.
Just saw a report that farmers cant get rid of their wheat and corn. They would usually export through the harbour of Odessa. In the first minute they said they are in western Ukraine which got me curious. Later they said they are in Olesko. So google map shows Olesko pretty close to Lwiw which means close to the Polish border. I am just wtf? How is it not possible to organize transport for this stuff. If you usually transport it to Odessa first how can you not transport it to a railway station and use the railway to get it to Poland at least rather than wait and go bankrupt. We manage to charter trains to get the refugees but we cant charter trains to transport food.
Isn’t it nowhere near time for harvest yet?
Apparently its the spring harvest. They need the money from selling for fuel and fertilizer which got expensive as well.
there are seasonal effects like that, but i read that since wheat commodities are non-perishable, they are stored and sold throughout the year to minimize swings and strain in infrastructure.
i don’t think the world is going to hurt for wheat for a few more months, and likely many consumers would mitigate effects by modestly switching to another grain. meanwhile other stores of wheat are filling the demand at a higher price. so yea it’s hurting ukrainian farmers the most so far.
Spring harvest? We’re missing something here because the plants aren’t grown yet
I am not sure. Just watched it again and they said spring harvest. Maybe its a mistake by the reporter.
City boys ain’t never heard of winter wheat? 
I ain’t reading all that, but can anyone tell the difference in something like bread made with winter vs spring wheat.