Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

https://twitter.com/StewartMcDonald/status/1512418300462088192

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1512365967183077380

https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1512524101641977863

https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1512524434241986565

https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1512524895749607428

https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1512525106685358082

https://twitter.com/KatyaYushchenko/status/1512524154792296455

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1512528173455585280

Not directly, but there have already been stories of shortages and Russians trying to stretch their medicines in mainstream media here in the US. People are going to suffer and die as a result of sanctions. In the end the calculation is just that more people will suffer and die if we don’t do sanctions.

This would be a good rationale for the sanctions.

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1512541832990896136?s=21

Hmmmmm, sounds familiar…

Just launch them over the border one by one with a catapult.

I would say that Russia’s operation in the Donbas is likely to be a failure, but there’s a significant chance it’s not. Russia is still way better equipped than Ukraine, and a portion of their disaster in the north is likely attributable to command screw ups and an unrealistic battle plan. It’s at least possible that those things get fixed, and Russia is able to ride its advantages in air power and artillery and vehicles to a victory.

I think it’s more likely they do a bunch more stupid shit and get creamed again, but I’d be wary of overweighting the Kyiv campaign to the point of excluding everything else we know about Russia’s military advantages.

It’s also easier to workout logistics and command in a smaller area than a larger one

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This is a larger area, isn’t it?

You should listen to the Ezra Klein podcast where he interviews some energy expert. The guy said Europe is trying to switch their ports or some such to be able to accept US oil, but it’s going to take time, so I’m the short term Europe can’t cut off Russia’s oil.

This fucking article. Man.

“Both sides blame the other for the attack” nonsense from start to finish.

Did the Ukrainians kill 50 of their own women, children and senior citizens, and injure hundreds more, for no gain save a few days of heightened public outrage from a public that’s already outraged?

* OR *

Is it the work of the military who invaded a sovereign country, who recently bragged about having the exact same missile that they now claim not to have, who bragged about the actual attack - then deleted their posts when the deaths of civilians came out, who occupies the territory in the direction the missile came from, and whose government has been caught in hundred of blatant easily disprovable lies in just the last two months?

Guess we’ll never know.

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https://twitter.com/kylejglen/status/1512523742009823240?s=21&t=Mu8heLs9sSrauIF5aOlb5A

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The Donbas region vs all of Ukraine?

The big fail was in trying to encircle Kyiv. Now they’re trying to do the same over the entire Donbas. I’m not a military analyst, but it looks like a larger area and a more difficult task.

They’re moving troops, calling up reserves, bringing in what allies they can and so on but their equipment, morale, logistical support, training, communications, and leadership all seem questionable. They still don’t have air superiority. On the other side, weapons are pouring in from the West, sanctions are being cranked up, and the Ukrainians are pissed.

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1512654478637510660

The sky is green and the sun comes up in the West.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512497539517407237

I like how the first step towards EU membership is apparently a questionnaire like you get at the doctor’s office.

- Do you or any close relatives have a history of Russian invasion?

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