Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

It’s going to be bad. I don’t know much about France’s wheat crop, but hot and dry to finish is not a recipe for success.

I do know quite a bit about the US’s crop/growing season. This is not a normal spring, especially so in the areas that grow most of the spring wheat. Slow/late planting means less acres get planted, and lower yields on the acres that do get planted.

https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1527781832133160963?s=20&t=Uk1QRiJKWzLjdkBPKKohog

https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1528850699416657922?s=20&t=Uk1QRiJKWzLjdkBPKKohog

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https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1528668629482541057?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1528668629482541057|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_96c63628-daa8-11ec-8ffc-d239ee89f693%2F0

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The question will be what will be the outcome? There are already protests in Sri Lanka. Over the year it will only get worse. Will these countries beg the west to stop their sanctions and led Putin win so people wont starve? Or will there be pressure to take action for example having a CV - battlegroup in the Black Sea to get the port of Odessa working? It wont work without also ensuring that the crops are getting to the port in the first place. Or the even more unlikely option: Will we change our way of life, eat less meat and open up more grain to feed people?
I really dont see how you can led Putin win or get away with that. Russia would control a big share of the food production and their distribution basically making lots of countries dependable on them. There wont be much leverage for the west left. Esp a country like Germany that hugely depends on exports but only has little raw materials is so fucked if it gets bullied.

Russia is advancing successfully in the East

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1529039909385908226?t=62oGOwSSb-ivYNE00GcLLw&s=19

https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1529013086719549440?t=4Tx1A4DOuIa4J9TKNw0gpg&s=19

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Neither do I, but as far as the weather goes, since that tweet was made (4 days ago), temperatures have gone down 10°C and it has rained every day. (Good news for humanity maybe, but not so much for my sunday backyard bbq).

If you were wondering what Kissinger is thinking:

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telegrams are saying that ukraine is still ceding territory in donbass in order not to incur losses, buying time for weapon systems to arrive. like popasnaya is a very good elevated position, so they had to step back upto 10km further to escape art range.

it’s… plausible, but not the onus is even greater on Ukraine to conduct the promised summer counteroffensive

well, british intelligence is apparently reading this thread.

reported via lolnewsweek? didn’t they get bought by a russian offshore co?

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also just realized how behind the times newsweek brand is. if they were leaning into the strongman movement, they should have rebranded along the lines of newsmax, rather than newsweak.

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crazy footage of switchblade hitting a tank. can’t believe they only sent them 100. i would guess the number is higher, and they are likely used only for high value targets.

IIRC they sent 100 sets of 10 = 1000.

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Pretty sure there’s 10 per set, so 100 = 1000. Also according to one of those OSINT guys that’s a switchblade 300, which can’t penetrate tank armor but could kill the soldiers.

Of course CNN doesn’t explain that 100 actually = 1000 or mention if it’s a mention 300 vs. 600. Just the most basic journalism guys.

your bony has been switchbladed

Yeah by like 1 second.

What others said, plus they developed a brand new one, plus the phoenix ghost:

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I don’t think Newsweek has any Russian ties. The parent company is closely linked with a bunch of Korean-based evangelical Presbyterian churches that may or may not be a batshit cult. It’s also not clear if Newsweek is being run with any sort of agenda, but the whole thing is sketchy top to bottom.

I thought Newsweek had moved on from the cult and is now run as a click bait farm trading on its former status. Either way, don’t trust anything from Newsweek without confirmation.

it’s been 3 months since russia invaded. spent some time looking into historical picture.

if this were the ww2 timeline, we are after the invasions of poland and czechoslovakia, but before auschwitz, before dunkirk, armistice with france, and italy entering the war. obviously before pearl harbor and barbarossa.

caveat with analogies, it is 8 years if you count from crimea/dnr/lnr, if we started counting there, it would be. and if this were the ww2, that’s the period after Anshluss, but before the non-aggression pact with the soviets.

i don’t see many off-ramps for putin that he’s going to take, so i think he keeps the escalating posture towards the coalition, and he’s likely to pick on smaller nato allies, i guess baltics and finland/sweden. it would also serve to keep nato from committing troops to the southern theater.

Sort of, but maybe not? It got spun off, but into the direct hands of one of the (former? current?) co-owners of IBT, which still maybe has ties to the maybe cult. It’s also unclear if the other (former? current?) IBT owner who plead guilty to fraud recently is still involved. Every time I look into this stuff it’s like recursive cycles of shadiness.