Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Thread on Russian considerations to gtfo Kherson. Requires careful planning, deception, discipline and coordination along with precise timing. They’ve shown great expertise in these areas so it should go well.

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Yes, that’s in Russia.

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1583795340875943937?s=20&t=2SbAvo_BerMo0Udv0ISyAw

Citation needed

Damn

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1584202556124774400?s=46&t=wROZ2QaNHhikG8WhT7S7Zw

What’s up with @VoteForSocialists? He had a lot of good info but haven’t seen him post in like 10 days.

Should be up in the next few days.

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I’m pretty concerned about this one tbh. It feels like the same run up to the Ukraine war itself. Intelligence sources warning about the invasion loudly and with great alarm. Putin denying the reports, and propagandists and useful idiots on the right picking up and amplifying his denials. Then he invaded just like the intelligence sources warned. Seems like the same thing happening here.

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The Russians say they’re trying to lower the reservoir level as much as they can, and have been for a while. This was a satellite image taken the 18th:

It’d be interesting to compare satellite images over time of the turbulence at the outlet of the dam, could corroborate if the Russians are telling the truth about trying to lower the level of the reservoir. I have no idea where those images can be found, or if they can be.

Deleted smartass comment. Not that funny. Sorry, trying to cut back.

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https://twitter.com/kylejglen/status/1584195527822168064?s=21

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Starting to have the impression someone paid the Wagner group to build a defensive line closer to the front and they just took the money and dropped that line as far away as possible from the front.

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1584307031736864768?s=46&t=ER7kPFmiZXkLUFK6H2_onA

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1584312547360268288?s=46&t=ER7kPFmiZXkLUFK6H2_onA

Nice NATO candidate you got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.

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Ukraine might have a dirty bomb! Remember, Ukraine can do as they like!

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That would be a big lift for Russia, but Putin does often keep his opponents on their toes by making the dumbest possible move, so we’ll see.

Shaking my head

Not even Russia can built the wall.

Someone pointed out, Russia has been saying the same thing about the Syrian opposition, that they have a dirty bomb and could use it, for a couple of years now. It’s either a feign to do full scale mobilization or it’s just the normal cycle of horseshit.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1584433824976449536