Do you think there is a meaningful difference in how Putin would handle this war if he had support for the war, as measured by a truly independent and anonymous polling operation asking “Do you support the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine?” at a 60% level vs. a 40% level?
I don’t know. I’d imagine there is some level of public disapproval of a war that might deter Putin from starting it. Now that it’s started there’s no going back for the current Russian leadership. They have to win.
well he jailed his one critic, so that he wouldn’t have an outsized influence on war sentiment. here he is in normally proukranian wapo
Opinion Alexei Navalny: This is what a post-Putin Russia should look lik
meanwhile Zelensky has signed formal request to join NaTO, as a response to annexation. And Canada has already supported the bid.
they just gotta get hungary and turkey on board, and then ron paul gifs.
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Demanding someone be specific when you deleted all your posts is hilarious.
Didn’t delete any posts. But let’s not pretend you read any posts Ikes.
Ok Ikes what was I wrong about that I didn’t acknowledge? You must have been thinking of something when you wrote that. What was it? Oh you decline to answer? What a shock!
These threads do occasionally become unreadable, but it isn’t from fucking keed. This right here is ridiculous:
This seems to be the post that spawned this particular shitshow:
Broad shit posting indeed. He even added an admission of uncertainty (“seems to be” and “isn’t at all clear”) and even later cited the source for his belief that the war is popular, an article from the fucking Washington Post, upon request. But instead we get dozens of posts and CN and CW joining the fray to pile on.
If this thread is just supposed to be VFS’s personal weblog and reposts from your Twitter timeline then what’s the fucking point. You guys would make Putin jealous with your inability to tolerate dissent.
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The view Keed mentions is favored among most of the well-informed sources I’ve seen. The Sept. 14 tweet thread Wookie posted is representative.
Wars of conquest are a tried and tested 300 year old Russian strategy, but they usually avoid biting off more than they can chew (Japan 1905, Afghanistan 1979, Ukraine 2022). Putin has recently been engaged in popular wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and Syria. Crimea was apparently a big hit with the Russian people. Poll: Majority Of Russians Support Crimea Annexation, But Worry About Economic Effects
The Levada-Chicago Council report found that in March 2015 – a year after the annexation – around 70 percent of Russians polled thought the annexation was a positive thing for the country. That figure slipped to 59 percent by August 2015, as world oil prices dropped precipitously and the effects of Western economic sanctions began to be felt, putting a brake on Russia’s economy.
Support rebounded by March 2018 to levels comparable to three years earlier, but then slipped in February 2019 to 62 percent, according to the poll.
I doubt there will be significant push back from the population without a lot more dead Russians or significantly worse economic developments (which are likely).
I also believe that many Russians, especially under 35 y/o, are fed up with Putin and that mobilization is unpopular.
Russia is a weird place, however, I’ve heard a lot of mention that the “social contract” with Russian strongmen is that they have a lot of leeway from the populace as long as they do not screw up too badly, and I do think Putin is now screwing up pretty badly with sanctions, mobilization, pariah status, and losing on the ground.
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What do you mean by the last part, is Putin known for being particularly diligent in crushing dissent or something? If true, it seems that any public polls during wartime would be wholly unreliable in determining public sentiment but what do I know 
Congrats you got the joke
I don’t have any position on the realness of the polls, I just find it very frustrating that a select group of posters is allowed to shit on others at-will, causing derails like this exact one, and then somehow twist it to blame keed.
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i mean, SK correctly says that he hasn’t lived or knows anything about russia, and he uses the only official numbers on public sentiment that he can find. but then he uses those numbers as the definitive truth, ignoring dozens of factors and evidence that russia is a potemkin state, that doesn’t operate anywhere close how it’s reported.
ofc, you can just mute me and not read my personal twitter timeline. besides fighting the kremlin narrative, i’ve been able to break news from the war here faster than you guys are able to repost and discuss it. so i can see that’s not everyone’s cup of tea
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you also missed a wars with finland in there. what are some wars where they didn’t bite more than they can chew? the 1939 division of poland?
Whatever you say man, I’m not going to argue about it. Treat the thread however you want. I just think this forum would be a much better place if you all weren’t assholes so often.
I think we’ve sufficiently left the original points behind so I don’t want to continue this discussion here. It is Friday, after all, and we have a dedicated thread elsewhere for this kind of content.
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I don’t think he deserves to get ganged up on, and mostly agree, but I think it’s a little silly to ignore the poster in question’s history like this is a vacuum.
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Mainly the recent “small ball” wars I mentioned.
Do you think less than 50% of Russians at least somewhat support the war in Ukraine? That’s about my ballpark estimate atm, and it may go down to like 35% if there’s a genuinely bad winter on the battlefield and economically.
Keep in mind that around 47% of Americans voted from Trump in 2020. People are fucking crazy. Putin’s anti-west narrative is bullshit, but it’s about as Russian as vodka. I’d think at least 35% of Russia would never alter their view of the righteousness of Putin and the cause even if things took a substantial turn for the worse.
All of these things are possible. Using “polls” and using them to make definitive statements are obnoxious
On this website?