Turkish presidential election 2023 -- Runoff vote 5/28

Major elections in Türkiye today with results starting to roll in. Pretty important one here with worldwide implications as the opposition party attempts to end Erdoğan’s 20-year autocratic rule.

Kilicdaroglu currently holding on as the betting favorite :pray:

Election Betting Odds by Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Odds slipping in the past hour as early results lean towards the conservative candidate… but we’ve all seen that story play out before.

Good live updates here

Turkey election results live news: Vote count under way | Elections News | Al Jazeera


Seems bad


Sounds familiar!

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Worth noting as well, if neither candidate gets over 50% of the vote it goes to a H2H runoff two weeks from now.

Is this election legit? I don’t follow Turkish politics but seems like he is the guy to have a sham “democratic” election no?

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I have had the same fear of course, but most of the Turkish I have spoke with do have faith in the voting process. More of a concern that negative results could be contested by Erdogan as rigged or invalid… yeah that sounds familiar. :roll_eyes:

My fiancé is Turkish so basing this mostly off what I’ve heard from her family and friends.


I know zero about this election. I’d still be willing to bet on Erdogan “winning” when all is said and done.

Lula winning in Brazil was a pleasant surprise. This would be a massive shock.

Welp, Erdogan just flipped to betting favorite :cold_sweat:

Some right wing party got 5%, can’t be good for the runoff.

Any thoughts on who a runoff favors?

If he has 49-45 lead heading in and it’s in a few weeks (limited campaigning opportunity) seems very hard for him to lose imo.

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Yeah that’s pretty much where I’m at.

Best hope seems to be that the opposition has been consistently saying the numbers reported by Anadolu Agency are inaccurate and their own counts are more favorable.

The official count of votes is still only 69% and I dont believe those numbers are public yet.

Then the only remaining x-factor will be who Ogan endorses. I think it’s more likely to be Erdogan, but that might not be totally cut and dry, given the opposition party is quite nationalistic and anti-immigration themselves currently, which seem to have been his main campaign points.

Betting markets holding at ~66-33 also provide some hope that maybe there are still some surprises in store here.

Latest update from Al-Jazeera feed:

Kilicdaroglu: Our rival is ‘blocking the will of Turkey’

Kemal Kilicdaroglu has said that the Erdogan camp keeps objecting to the results from certain ballot boxes to block the system.

“There are ballot boxes that have been objected to six times, 11 times,” he said, adding: “You are blocking the will of Turkey.”

Kilicdaroglu said: “You cannot prevent what will happen through objections. We will not allow a fait accompli.”

He urged Erdogan to stop “perception management” and the national election board to act responsibly.


Officially heading for a runoff on 5/28 after an overall disappointing result for the opposition.

Current reported tally of 49.5% for Erdogan and 44.9% for KK

No one’s going to post the Jeb meme?

Twitter is feeding me zero information about the election in Turkey, not sure if that’s an Elon thing or not, usually it’s been a good news aggregator for international stuff.

It’s an Elon thing

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pretty baffling that erdogan is so narrowly looking to lose, but his party easily maintained in parliament

Opposition media Tele1 reporting KK currently ahead 51-49 in the runoff with ~66% of votes counted

Meanwhile state media has Erodogan up 55-45 with a similar number of votes counted

We’ll see…

Latest update from Al Jazeera live coverage

‘Gap can be closed in upcoming hours’: Analyst

With 55 percent of votes counted, the lead is still for Erdogan with 55 percent of votes, while Kilicdaroglu has obtained 44 percent of votes.

Seda Demiralp, professor of political science at Isik University in Istanbul told Al Jazeera that a closing of the gap can be expected in the coming hours.

“The gap is low, lower than expected, considering it’s [according to state news agency] Anadolu Agency, and also there are other sources that give more knife-edge results. I would say this is a more optimistic scenario to the opposition, because many were fearing in the opposition that Erdogan would win with a landslide victory [but this suggests it’s not going to happen],” Demirap said.

“It looks like the gap can be closed in the upcoming hours. That’s what we daw in the previous round, that’s what we saw in 2018 elections. Typically we see Anadolu Agency starting incumbent votes with a much higher rate and the margin closes over the next hours. So, we may expect a similar change and a closing of the gap.”

Didn’t happen this time. Erdogan won.