Our parents in the 70s were paying 18% for their mortgages!
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The new American Dream to die at 95 with substantial mortgage and student loan debt
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Yeah but they also bought a house for 4-5 times their annual income.
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It was more like 1-2. That’s why I think long term these 5-10x salary prices at near 10% interest just isn’t possible.
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It probably depends on how you measure it and the quality of data, I had seen this kind of chart before:
Sounds like a potential generational wealth opportunity coming up soon for big cash buyers like Apollo and Blackstone, but probably will take awhile to light that fuse.
Commercial real estate defaults are going to go through the roof. The subsequent owners will make a killing.
Thats kind of what I was thinking of a fuse that will take awhile to light as maturities come up. Also think we need a shakeout in some areas of commercial, just too much real estate in certain areas.
Residential fuse is longer and might need more of a change to the big guys buy and rent to (never-own) model that our robber barons dream of from time to time in the right markets.
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Right after 2009, for a few years CRE lenders actually had discipline and underwrote to stressed interest rates. That’s gone out the window in recent years. But banks aren’t really going to feed a crash - they’ll extend and pretend. As you note, it’s maturing perm loans that will really drive widespread defaults, and that will take years to play out.
Yeah, you can also tack on younger homeowners not saving at the same rate, pensions declining, higher taxes and insurance to start.
only 4 have past 90, though a few are trying to add to the list
old days was being so stupid you couldn’t go to college, now you’re so stupid you did if you have loan debt that long for it
That sounds more accurate cause I just did a quick search for incomes and average home prices. But also from my own experience I bought a couple years ago at 5x my income and 2.7% and that was near the top of my budget. I can’t afford 5x at 7% now. And I’m single with no kids.
Nobody should market time blah blah blah but it feels like equities have a lot further to fall. Now that you can get 5%+ from bonds with little to no default risk, stocks look comparatively pretty shitty at prices that are still well above historic levels.
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We have a separate thread for posts like this.
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Thread(s) because god knows if that observation goes in the Crapto or the Crypto threads!
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well if this post isn’t perfect timing for a market bottom, then we’re truly doomed
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Lmao futures up 50 points in last 30 mins.
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“how the heck is bitcoin 19,500” goes in the crapto thread
“amazing and incredible that bitcoin is at 19,500” goes in the crypto thread
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