I agree. I kind of misread his post.
Life expectancy for most people is retirement age + ~20 years. That is a long time in the future to be making specific financial projections.
Yes it is more complicated than can be contained in a sentence. But if someone’s parents’ have good pensions then, “put it all in bonds” rates to be closer to exactly wrong than exactly right.
Yes I agree with that for sure. Based on my experience, if they don’t start asking the bigger questions and making the bigger plan, they’re going to keep floundering around making incoherent decisions about how to invest and how to collect and spend their money. It’s a really common leak.
This is absolutely correct in it’s statement but not in it’s conclusion. The reason that a detailed plan in retirement is valuable is because there are a whole bunch of variables (some certain and some uncertain) that you need to factor into your decumulation decision making that you don’t have to factor into your accumulation decision making. It’s specifically the complexity in the system dynamics post-retirement that make it a good investment to spend time building a plan, not the other way around.
There are big unknowns in retirement as you say (capital markets returns are a major one, and life expectancy is another because the typical person has a life expectancy of about 20-25 years at retirement but with a standard deviation of about 8 years, so the range of possible longevity is really high even if you have a good sense of how healthy you are). But it’s a big leak to look at all that uncertainty and conclude that there’s no point building a plan. A much better way to deal with the uncertainty is to make a model retirement plan that shows you how you would best draw down your assets to achieve your goals in a baseline scenario, and then test alternate scenarios.
Having no plan at all and just winging it year to year is very likely to result in bigger mistakes than making a plan and then adapting the plan as you go. We don’t really need to speculate about this, we have both the capability to model out different possible futures AND we have the combined experience of thousands and thousands of retirees.
$18,900 now.
Go to the local casino and put it all on black. Don’t put it on red. Only a moron would put it on red.
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What about a high yield CD that’s at 3%?
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I wouldn’t bother with 3% cd’s when some places online savings rates are over 2% now
but whatever, feels to me like the traditional ideas of doing it aren’t it anymore and it’s a find the option that sucks the least (and I doubt it’s western equities) but I’m an idiot for not fully trusting my instincts, posted in this thread to dump the NVDA and nope lol me, just a giant mistake like that kills so much.
Reall ballas put it all on green.
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that’ll be us too eventually, they’re just 100 years ahead of us in decay
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Oh please my ethereum yo yos 2% like 8 times per day
well eth actually is a shitcoin. GBP wasn’t until like a month ago. And its not just GBP, lots of currencies in trouble. Dollar milkshake theory playing out live, yltsi
Cliffs on what this is?
https://www.techinasia.com/dollar-milkshake-theory-means-crypto
extra cliffs: its not good for USD either
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Thanks.
Gotta give ol’ Brent some credit. That’s a killer name for a theory.
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It will be interesting to see what Buffett does with his mountain of cash. This feels like its going to be a pretty bad recession and there are sure to be deals. I marvel at his ability to sit on the sidelines for years and years.
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