I went to 60:40 as soon as I got within striking distance of retirement numbers, and I’m still there now. (With a couple percent in craptos too.) No regrets, especially with a big chunk of the 40 in inflation protected stuff, which actually haven’t performed that great except for the part in I-bonds.
As a guy who used to play poker for a living I know that a ‘break even stretch’ is actually a giant crater between two points on the graph. I would love to spend the next decade buying financial products below where they are now.
Sure but there’s a very real likelihood that we go flat for a decade, then growth is much slower than it was before. Wouldn’t be surprised if we go flat for a decade then average like 4% a year for a decade, but it’s very choppy. You could be looking at something like 15-20 years before the S&P hits a new ATH in that scenario, and very low average returns over a 2-3 decade period which is basically the rest of our investing lives.
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i have to scoff at predicting an entire flat decade. during 20s, renewables are going to possibly quadruple and drop in costs, while fossils are going to start at record prices and shrink for the first decade ever. where does he think all that money is going to go? not the stock market?
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The boomers have sucked every last cent out of the economy and are soon to be pulling their money out of the stonks market to continue their lifestyles replaced by what exactly?
I think the most likely thing is that stonks only go up but there is some cause for concern in the medium term imo.
Whoknows what’s going to happen but I’m glad more people are acknowledging that some seriously fucked up things could be on the horizon
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Anything is possible but US equities have delivered through far more difficult times than this.
GG me. Just bought a fuckton of VTI today.
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I am not at all convinced there will be a US in 10 years, or at least not one in its current form. There’s also the possibility that economic growth eventually slows to zero as the world population plateaus or declines.
At a bare minimum it’s plainly obvious that the US is a nation in decline by any measurable statistic. The idea that we will still be the dominant political and economic force in 30 years or so when we retire seems like pure fantasy.
That doesn’t even take into account what the GOP will do to the country the next time that they get full power. It’s game over for everything at that point.
I’m actually of the viewpoint that enjoying your best years before the world burns up from climate change and/or the US implodes makes a lot more sense than squirreling away the majority of your disposable income into the US stock market which is covered in warts at this point. That being said I do own some S&P 500 in a retirement account for full disclosure.
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I’m telling y’all, buy NCLH. Shit is going to Mars.
I mostly agree with this, although I think there are huge benefits to owning the roof over your head free and clear that are worth some sacrifice. If you can get that accomplished (which admittedly is incredibly difficult for many now), then you have so much more security and freedom.
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It’s been this bad before and much worse, we just have higher expectations now.
The 1960 presidential election actually was rigged. In the 1970s we had 18% interest rates and double digit unemployment. Our country was far less safe, and institutional racism much worse, at basically every point in our nation’s history.
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Most of the rest of the world was not developed and the parts that were, were still recovering from WW2 at that point right? I mean I generally think the most likely thing is for the US stonks market to beat inflation over time but there are a lot of risk factors both globally and at home that didn’t exist 50 years ago imo.
As fucked up as America is we still have massive advantages over basically everyone else, at least economically. Our capital markets are relatively well regulated and, for now, benefit from a predictable rule of law. Entrepreneurs still overwhelmingly want to be here. Our universities are the best in the world. We are absolutely on the cusp of losing it all, the current GOP is a unique threat to everything and would absolutely ruin us, conceded.
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I pretty much agree with all that. I think the US is still in the best position today. I just think the risk factors for the USA #1 house of cards are higher now than they have been in our lifetimes basically.
Add in things like climate change and I think the way the next few decades shake out globally is very unpredictable compared to the recent past.
Concerns about the US aging population / retirement of the boomers and climate change and fascism are all legitimate. I think it’s a reach to conclude that investing in stocks is a bad choice. Investing in stocks has always been risky and the question has never been “is there a chance this works out really bad for me”, the question has always been “given a range of options all of which are risky, how do I choose?” Those are very different questions. It’s not like the decision to consume all your wealth today is without risks either. Running of out money in retirement is basically the number one concern for most household investors. So choosing an option that guarantees that will happen doesn’t seem like a slam dunk low risk option.
But not all hope is lost. No matter how bearish you are about the US (demographically or politically) the reality is that if you invest your assets in proportion to global capital markets, then less than half your money will be invested in US stocks. You don’t need the US economy to dominate the world economy to make stock investing successful. A strong US economy helps for sure, but it’s not strictly necessary. There’s plenty of scenarios where the US dominance in capital markets and the economy continues to wane, but global economic output continues to rise and global investments are successful.
I am also pretty skeptical of the idea that US boomers selling their stocks is game over for the (global) stock market. When boomers sell their stocks, the money doesn’t evaporate. They’re going to turn around and send all that money to others, mostly to US corporations in the form of revenue. And a lot of the stocks that boomers hold are going to find their way to their kids via estates because a lot of boomers have literally accumulated more assets than they know what to do with.
Anyway, like I said, all concerns about the future of the stock market are valid concerns. The future performance of stocks has been a giant unknown forever. But even valid points about risk need to stand up the big question: So What? If you are in a position to be saving and investing for the future, every choice other than “I spend below my means and I invest the difference in the stock market” will be at least as risky as investing in stocks. That’s a harsh reality but it’s the curse of us fortunate few who get to worry about things like “how will my stocks do this decade” and not “how will I get my next meal”.
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I actually think it will probably be USA#1 or 2 in 30 years. Just think it’s also likely that the global standard of living will be lower by that point 
Lots of stocks are going to get hammered by the drop in fossil fuel usage.
Uhhh, what?