I thought that this number is a reported average over the past year, so that means the actual inflation over the past month was quite small….
Or am I wrong about that?
Market was expecting core inflation down 0.1 was up 0.1 percent month over month. Magntiude not huge but ends the inflation had peaked already argument.
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No I think you’re right. It’s not that there has been big inflation in prices in the last month, it’s that some investors are guessing that the Federal Reserve will do interest rate HIKES to combat inflation and any news on the inflation that is bad or even dicey will send them into a panic.
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Is a 0.1 to -0.1 really significant? I would think those numbers are essentially the same. Gotta be really hard to measure something like this month to month
Only psychologically imo
Hot take - I think the fed is doing a good job
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It’s also really important to note that current stock prices are based on certain things not just remaining constant but improving on a constant basis going forward. Things like labor costs as a share of sales, transportation costs as a share of sales, and that shareholders share of the pie will continue to grow at a pretty steady pace.
Personally I think that the price of things like stocks should decline. Rich people have done really really well in society over the last 50 years, and this is what one of the ways that could unwind would look like. We’re all rooting for labor to win every battle it has right now and that looks like the value of stocks falling because workers have squeezed the bottom line and gotten a bigger share.
I think things have been fucked up badly in the labor market pretty much my entire life, and now the boomers are starting to really retire en masse. I’m willing to take the hit in my portfolio if it means the value of my labor goes up… because I work for a living like most (probably all) of the other people here do.
So bring on the CRE/Private equity meltdown. Bring on the stock market collapse. In the real world they’ll still need us to do the work that keeps the economy running. They have to be laid low to be forced to cut us back in.
I also want to buy stocks cheaper with my increased income. Don’t worry I’m still Bored Sociopath lol. I am homo economicus lol.
It is given what it means for the path of rate hikes.
Really? Or is it the perception of what the rate hike will be? Because good god, if our policy changes dramatically on a -0.1 to 0.1 swing we have some serious problems.
Seems like market irrationality to me, but admittedly I’m way out of my league here
Somewhat the perception, but on that front its more like the market was previously wishcasting monetary policy wouldnt be tight for an extended period before today and now returned to reality. Fed has been pretty consistent in communicating the need for tight fiscal policy for an extended period of time. Market might have been irrational, but the rally was what was irrational.
A meaningful part of the Fed managing inflation is also managing inflation expectations and breaking wage/price spiral so in that sense small changes altering paths isnt quite as irrational as it sounds.
-0.1 to 0.1 sequential inflation swing is also a 2%+ annualized difference in core inflation so it isnt THAT small.
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Completely anecdotal but I know so many upper middle class types who saved almost by necessity during the pandemic and are still YOLOing it up with absurd vacations they can’t afford, new cars, etc.
It’s just plain fucking weird to have an economic down cycle with prices spiraling ever higher, there has to be real pain to fix it I think.
Not replying to anyone specific but I believe per trading ecnomices that core rose. 6 tenths month over month. Annualized out that is 7.2% for CORE. That is with the volatile food and energy stripped out. Rent (owners equivalent) one of the huge drivers and very sticky.
It’s a big deal and the fed is really boxed in to the point that serious pain may be the only remedy.
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Same in Australia and our inflation isn’t nearly as bad yet, basically everybody reserve bank and stock market agreeing inflation peaks eoy
Oh wow I misread the report, thanks, yikes. Market move makes even more sense to me now.
I would say day one had half or fewer as many walk throughs as the same house did less than a year ago on day one. There was a morning rush and an after work rush, but nothing much happening for the several hours in between.
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Quick get rates back to zero for ARK!
This right here is a hall of fame list.
https://twitter.com/WillauerProsky/status/1570079515522514945?s=20&t=S2EDF6kmoJjliKlJ5rokcw
(How on earth did Wayfair get a single character ticker? I thought those were supposed to be prestigious?)
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Uber my god
Uber really should have been a start up that made consumer oriented apps for cab companies, rather than trying to Change The Way We Think About Everything. The user experience with monopolistic cab companies did and still does largely suck, and was begging for a disruption. But the dystopian nightmare of underpaid cab drivers delivering $35 burritos was and it still monumentally stupid.
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I think this is right. Like, Open Table said, “Hey restaurants, our app makes it so much easier for diners to make reservations, and it makes it easier for you to fill your empty seats. Win-win for everyone!”.
They didn’t decide to build out a nationwide collection of restaurants whose only commonality or distinguishing factor is that they use that app.