That makes sense, especially if stuff was destroyed in the war. But that’s the tricky part. We don’t have a good idea of what’s being destroyed or not so it’s hard to say what investments would be giving you the desired exposure.
Are there any Ukrainian tech companies that were blocked out of selling their services to EU countries that are currently beaten down by the war?
well cybersecurity wouldn’t be needed as much if russia died
if i knew who could possibly supply the UA rebuild, roads, buildings, power lines, i would bet on that. there’s going to be marshall plan for ukraine.
EU membership would come with a big demand for that tariff free food commodities. UA has famously fertile soil. so, like EU conglomerates that will eventually finance UA production and sell it to the west?
but other than general themes like that, i don’t really know.
My 9 year old has informed me “stonking” is a word meaning “to make lots of money quickly.”
riverkid for mod
I figured it out @VoteForSocialists. Find a company that can charge for storage of abandoned Russian tanks. Business is booming!
Victorious Junkyard Ltd.
Ticker would have to be SUJL.
currently running joke is that in less than a week, russia has become ukraine’s largest supplier of heavy weaponry. potentially true for just recycled steel too.
Amazing jobs report is bad for stocks because it means interest rates are more likely to get raised?
Exited an emerging markets etf in order to add another value stock: PSEC, which has been on my radar for a while and finally dipped low enough to snag. They’re a BDC with an 8.85% dividend yield that uses less leverage than the competition. They also offer a discount on share price if you reinvest dividends, so the yield is going to end up being more like 9.3%. They also benefit from a rising rate environment, because they take on debt at fixed rates and lend at market rates.
Got in at $8.05.
BDCs are going to get absolutely destroyed in a recession, so be careful. Credit quality in the markets PSEC plays in is awful and rising rates are a mixed bag because the companies they lend to have almost no cash flow and are likely unhedged against rates.
There are tradeoffs. BDCs stand to take on a lot of risk during a recession, but PSEC is one of the more cautious ones, both in terms of quality of the companies they lend to and in terms of using leverage. Meanwhile, with the broad markets still overpriced, there are better deals to be had in private companies. They aren’t just lenders, they also take equity stakes in companies.
On top of getting the better deal in private companies, PSEC is trading below book and at a low P/E, with a high dividend yield - I don’t need the market to figure out it’s worth more, I can just keep taking a high dividend yield. They continued paying a dividend all through the 2008-2009 recession.
They were also close to being a value play during the pandemic, and a friend has owned it for a while and kept pointing me towards it, so I followed them closely and tracked their quarterly calls and I think they’re very well-run and managed their risks well during the early stages of the pandemic in particular. To me, that portends well for how they’ll handle a recession.
A biz that’s trading below book are the ones most sensitive to a market downturn. A low P/E, im not going there and dividends are meaningless, fwiw.
But if this is just another market dip that has been the case for years then it’s likely going to work out.
After scanning their portfolio and Id just say (and I say this as someone that knows a number of these companies in their portfolio and is pretty familiar with the terms in this market) that Im pretty skeptical of the quality argument. Beyond the business models, the credit agreements in this market are all terrible right now and these businesses are all levered to the hilt. Recoveries are going to well below whats modeled out from historical numbers when a recession hits and movement in marks for a lot of what they own will be brutal on the downside if there is a systematic downturn in demand. Private markets are as, if not more, overheated than public markets.
I mean, do what you want, but if I understand your desired strategy it is to try and find things that outperform in a bearish market/recession scenario. Most investments I wouldnt opine on, but this one I understand enough to say that I can close to guarantee this gets smashed in a recession/bear market.
I’ve never understood holding junk bonds. Like, in good markets you’re going to absolutely crush the 7-10% yield on these things with equity, and in bear markets you often get wiped out, just like equity.
Obviously there are sophisticated strategies around buying shitty debt to have a seat at the table during restructuring or whatever, but for your average Merrill Lynch client or self-directed investor holding junk bonds seems completely insane.
Can you explain how a company has negative revenue?
This was a Cathie Wood favorite lololololol
https://twitter.com/thebenschmark/status/1499500070596710402?s=21
Today has big procrastination energy.
From their 10-K:
During the third quarter of 2021, we announced our decision to suspend deliveries of our C-1000 vehicles and recall the 41 vehicles we have already delivered to customers when management determined that additional testing and modifications to existing vehicles are required to bring the C-1000 vehicles into full compliance with Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (“FMVSS”). We further announced the Company filed a report with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (“NHTSA”) regarding the need for additional testing and vehicle modifications to bring our C-1000 vehicles into full compliance with FMVSS. We indicated our previous statements related to the C-1000’s compliance with NHTSA standards cannot be relied upon and so notified the Securities and Exchange Commission. For further discussion on this matter, please see Note 18, Commitments and Contingencies, to the consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Current Report on Form 10-K.
So they’re basically reversing revenue that they had previously recorded.
Note for anyone who is inclined to by stocks based on heuristics like price/sales or price/earnings: If you sort by those metrics, this company will appear very cheap, perhaps the cheapest on a price/sales basis - but you should absolutely not buy it!